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Told you it was 50-50. =)
You're one of the very, very, very few people who are 1) OOS, and 2) didn't fulfill all the requirements for admission.
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the in-state chances are greatly underestimated
Do you mean that we're underestimating the difficulty of getting into Berkeley for in-state students? And that it can still be a reach even for students with over-involvement? (I'd agree with the latter.)
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Just wanted to comment saying that I find it disturbing when I read this thread with people who have 2350+ on their SAT's and they are only given match (60%). Most of the time, its more like 90%.