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Rule #1 (all together, now): When it comes to auditioned programs, you cannot assume that any school will be a safety on the basis of talent. The judgments are somewhat subjective, and both the number of open slots and the level of the competition can vary quite a bit from year to year at any given school. It is very hard for a performance major to structure schools into reach/match/safety when there are so many unknowns.
There are several strategies that have been reported here on CC to help deal with this. Some reason that they will only apply to a limited number of top music programs and, if they do not get in, they will do something else. This can be taking a gap year, applying to schools that do not require an audition, or majoring in something other than music.
Another strategy is to apply to a wide range of schools, ranging from the very top to a few lesser-known programs that have a decent teacher for the instrument or voice part of choice. A variation on this is to audition early at one or more schools that have rolling admissions or a non-binding EA plan. If an acceptance is gained on that basis, it may be possible to withdraw applications at some of the other schools to keep the auditions down to a reasonable number.
Some take private lessons while in high school with the teacher at the intended college and hope to parlay that into an unofficial early decision.
Assessing talent while in the high school years basically requires getting the student into contact with people who will be making the actual decisions in a few years, or with teachers who have recently had students accepted into good music schools. That can be done via single consultations, private lessons, attendance at summer camps or workshops, competitions, top honors ensembles, really good youth symphonies or choruses, and pre-college programs to name a few.
Even as a musician, I would not trust my own judgment where my son or daughter is concerned. It is simply too hard to make a clear, objective decision in that case.
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