epiphany

^^ and with the residency requirement for U.C. eligibility being so minimal now -- vs. what it used to be. (i.e. -- "when they have been supporting the UC system through Calif state taxes for 20+ years?")

In sum, "What's going on" is unpredictability, for the vast majority even of the very high-achieving students. That is why diversifying a list to include different geographies, different levels, different types/specialties/emphases in a college, and publics as well as many privates, is so important.

We should all develop -- & advise for -- Worst Case Scenarios. What are we prepared to do if no acceptances result? Naturally one way to avoid that is to choose the most acceptable college that has an EA option or a rolling admissions school. What this requires is starting the search earlier than historically has been necessary. First doing a lot of distant research, then combining perhaps family trips with a look-see at a possible EA or rolling admissions choice after that research. Not the obvious or local safeties, but the hidden ones. ("The Hidden Ivies," "Beyond the Ivy League" -- both good books -- & additional products of individual family research.)

And I will say this again: For no category is this as important as for the category of the middle-class (or above) student who lacks significant economic or personal challenges. Sometimes even the flagship public will admit challenged students if they are also high-achievers, as against students from that class whose life has been easier. This is apart from race or ethnicity, just economics & personal challenges.

Finally, the essay can no longer be laughed off. More than ever this year, essays have been significant factors in decision making -- judging by not just posts on CC, but at my D's school, at schools I am involved with in my area, where I know admissions results & know the student's profiles in detail (including having reviewed their essays). It's the content & tone that are looked at (assuming the mechanics are basically solid).