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I think the fact that Grinnell has "over-enrolled" is significant as it summarizes the intensity of this year's admissions climate fairly well. Remember that, from what I've read, Grinnell's yield is around 30%, and many applicants cross-apply to schools like Carleton, Amherst, and other top LACs. Given how competitive admissions have become, highly qualified applicants may have in a sense "settled" for Grinnell. Just read the "Waitlist success stories" thread on CCs main page. There are tons of waitlist stuff being posted there every day. One user and poster on the thread summarizes the waitlist situation that is occurring this year fairly well:
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I suspect there are going to be enrollment issues at other schools this year, especially Midwestern LACs (which are often considered safeties for people looking at NE LACs and the Ivy league).
Also, with regards to the Duke case you (or someone else you're paraphrasing from) used as an example, if a student has enrolled and backs out it's not unheard of for the school to get in contact with the other school (assuming the person is stupid enough to tell Duke where they're going). I was warned of this, and I had an incredibly awkward situation where a school wanted me to break ED with Grinnell to go to them, and they said that schools revoke admission based on people breaking ED but they wouldn't (obviously).
I noticed it in a thread a few days ago about people sending deposits to multiple schools, but if you're doing binding ED at a school and back out for a reason that is not financial it's not unheard of for schools to get in contact with other schools, resulting in the school you were going to go to revoking their offer of admission. Now, breaking binding ED isn't the same as sending a deposit for enrollment since you're not signing a contract (a pretty much unenforcable contract, though), but it's probably worse. Admissions is pretty incestuous, everyone knows everyone else in my experience.
Are you really sure you want to wait until June or July when you'll be past deadlines at other schools yourself?