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There's no way to tell, is there? For what it's worth, I was thinking 15-20 private universities, 10-15 LACs, and 10-15 state flagships. I don't think that's unreasonable. I know people on CC think everyone applies to all of the Ivies, plus Stanford and MIT, but that's just not true in my world. I see lots of kids who only apply to one or two of those schools (and more often to Harvard than to any other). And it's not that they're slouches -- sometimes they get in to Harvard. The only person I know taken from the waitlist at Harvard in recent years had put down a deposit at a well-outside-the-top-20 LAC, by the way.
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