Quote:
|
Actually, it seemed to me that she was saying that Obama carried a huge proportion of the black vote in the primaries, which contributed greatly (in many cases, it probably was the deciding factor) to him beating her, but that winning the black vote by such a huge amount wouldn't be as effective in the general. Which is true, is it not?
|
I agree. Carrying the black vote in the primary campaign is uncorrelated with success in the general election (it might even be negatively correlated!). Democrats always win 90% of the black vote in the general campaign, they don't need to fight for the vote (this is obvious from the data). They also do not need to fight for the liberal votes, as Democrats always dominate the liberal vote compared to Republicans. They do need to fight for the white independent middle class vote. Having the candidate which can best win that vote virtually guarantees an election win.
The only convincing argument for Obama is that he can counteract the loss in white middle class votes by bringing in new voters (younger ones, specifically).
This is based on the current race today and should not be viewed as a prediction for the next few months. Obama might convince White Middle Class America that he actually is the candidate for them (he's not doing that currently).