| The number of high school graduates peaked nationally in 2008 and will be down just slightly in 2009 and 2010---not enough of a change at that scale to affect college admissions. But regional and state-by-state changes are more complicated. High school graduates will be down in the Northeast and Midwest, generally up in the Southeast, and mixed in the West, with some states down sharply and others showing explosive growth. Especially notable is that non-Hispanic whites---the group statistically most likely to attend college---will be down quite significantly in many parts of the Northeast and Midwest, possibly enough to affect college admissions for colleges that draw their student bodies principally from those regions.
But other trends could offset this. I don't have data to prove it, by my impression is that in response to an increasingly competitive college admissions environment, students are applying to more colleges now than in the past, thereby amplifying the competitiveness. Also, online applications coupled with widespread use of the Common Application has simplified the application process, making it easier for students to apply to more colleges. Bottom line, it's hard to see any significant change one way or the other at the HYPS level, but most colleges and universities still draw primarily from a regional applicant pool, and competitive pressure at schools in some parts of the Northeast and Midwest may ease just a bit over the next few yewars. |