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The college counselor at my son's HS relayed anecdotes of 10-20 students/yr rescinded from UCSC for not meeting the second semester senior year requirements. The example given was a D on the final report card. Other ways to get rescinded would be senior year GPA under 3.0 (unweighted for UCLA and UCB, I think weighted for most other campuses). If you call the admissions office for each UC she is considering, they can give you their precise requirements.
I don't think doing well on the AP test will be a factor, as the decision will be made before that score returns.
The suggestion to retake at a cc if she does get a D first semester is a good one. Just be sure to send an update right away to the colleges she is applying to. The whole premise of self-reporting grades is based upon complete accuracy and to wait and not report a substantive change in schedule would be a big mistake.
Hopefully with extra effort and a good tutor she will maintain her C level grade or improve.
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