I think if your teachers all think you're getting in, you probably have a really good shot. Parents and friends... maybe the latter, but the former may be delusional. :-)
My son applied ED. He goes to one of the best private HS in the country, is captain of both football and lacrosse, plays basketball as well. Sports and camps all year round, some volunteering, but not huge... no time. Has great grades in the toughest curriculum offered, 6 AP's and got a 33 on the ACT. His SAT II's are all 690's. His recommendations should be stellar. Before I started reading all these threads I would have thought he had a decent shot, but now... I am definitely going to start talking up the Plan B schools.
Question: How do you know about the earlier than the 15th date? I wonder if they email it AND mail it. Double rejection or double joy. Also... How many of you had Alumni interviews?