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We had a different experience with early test scores. S took the PSAT sophomore year cold and did pretty well (not NMF well, not in range for that), he took it junior year with a little more prep (self-directed with prep books) and did significantly worse. He took the SAT spring of junior year with yet more self-directed prep and did quite well. He took it a second time in fall of senior year, mostly just prepping for the math section believing that was an area he could see some improvement. He was a straight A math student, but his score in the math section wasn't that great (I think it was a 680 on the first SAT), but inexplicably even with the extra math prep his math subsection score went down on the second SAT. However his writing and reading (already high the first time around) went up even higher.
So who knows? His tests superscored gave him a 2200, so that was that. It was good enough as it turned out.
You raise an interesting question about identifying the schools that are good bets. This gets really tricky with ED apps though. Since it is binding, I'd only use ED for a school that feels like a reach school, a dream school. Yes, the chances of getting into those schools is slimmer, but for less reachy schools (and since you'll be able to pay) the chances of getting RD acceptances is better anyway.
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