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How to determine your child's ability? Good question.
My son, (jazz studies - drum set) started playing music rather late (8th grade) and only decided to major in music and the end of his junior year. His high school music instructor was very good, but in a rather large department with a heavy emphasis on concert percussion, our son wasn't a "stand out" and received no special recognition. At summer music camp (soph/junior years) he was well regarded by the teachers, but did not receive any special awards for his musicianship. Because of a lack of recognition in these educational settings, there were times that I felt he might not have what it takes. His "style" was not flashy or technical - he prefers playing in a subtle, understated manner that doesn't have people saying "wow - that drummers amazing!"
However, every year that he played, more local professionals called on him to jam, sit -in and even perform paid "gigs." Many of them made comments about his ability to "play the music" with the appropriate dynamics, feel and accents! He was also very dedicated to practicing, spending several hours each day at it and really improving his "sight reading" skills along the way.
He had many "pro" mentors who gave him advice and opportunities. Last spring, his college auditions went very well and he was accepted to all three of his top choices with decent scholarships. This summer he's been really ramping it up, playing nearly every night and getting plenty of recognition from the local jazz community. Now I'm thinking maybe he has what it takes, after all.
So, my recommendation to parents ? Give your child time to develop and see where their talents may take them. Encourage your kids to play in as many situations as possible. It should be evident that plenty of top musicians never attended the prestige conservatories or won major awards as a young musician... it is a long journey. Ultimately, to be a working professional simply requires that other musicians want to play with you and will hire you. Most importantly, that audiences appreciate what your doing and will pay to hear you perform.
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