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Passion is huge. In my daughter's case, she's been singing forever. A friend has her on tape singing along -tunefully- to some pieces of "Happy Birthday" - for her _first_ birthday (she'd only ever heard it a couple of times, plus whatever may have been on a tv in the house somewhere). As a preschooler she would sing anything (and everything) from "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin", all the time. Anywhere. In the bathroom at restaurants, for example - very entertaining to the other diners(!). Also as a preschooler - in the grocery store she once broke out into the John/Abigail Adams duet from "1776" where they sing about _really_ missing each other. You haven't lived 'til you've heard a 4-year-old sing "...and is my lover's fav'rite pillow still firm and fair?..(snip)..Come soon as you can to my cloister; I've forgotten the feel of your hand..." While she became more discriminating later when it came to what to sing and where, the fact is she never stopped. A former high school classmate remarked on her MySpace on how he remembers her walking down the hall to this class or that, singing things he'd never heard of, constantly.
If you get the feeling that you're pushing your kid, that may be a bad sign. If you feel you are holding on for dear life as they drag you along, that may be a sign the other direction. I have never had the passion and drive for performing that she has had since before she started school. I enjoy music-making greatly - but she lives for it. THAT's the difference.
School-system competitions and ensembles can be an indicator, but they have to be taken with a grain of salt. First, it's local in scope. Second, there may be other factors. We moved to a new school district, and the fact that there had been a particular girl who was "the" singer in this district made it so that my daughter's hopes and ambitions were not warmly received, as the other girl's mom was a long-time volunteer for the district, etc., etc.
Get as much exposure as you can, even in unrelated areas. In my kid's case, we had skating competitions, where she learned stage presence, concentration, and focus while under bright lights and the scrutiny of an auditorium and a panel of judges. She made it to nationals there, an early demonstration of her ability to commit and follow through.
So I'd say get out there and do it do it do it. Get opinions from people in a position to judge on the level you're aiming for and get several. Look for indicators of success, from competition results to a level of discipline and commitment at home. And apply to as many schools as you can afford, making sure you have a good selection of stretch, probably, and safety schools. You never know when a bad audition day will hit.
Above all, make sure it is their passion, not yours, and that they are generally happy with themselves no matter where the cards eventually fall. A strong mentally happy kid will make a good life and career for themselves, regardless of whether they get into a top school.
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