biglefty: It would be totally irresponsible of me to try to predict any given outcome...but let me be the first to congratulate your D on achieving NMSF status!
Ohio's facts are as follows:
- the # of OH PSAT testtakers dropped 4% in 2011 vs. 2010 (from 51275 to 49231)
- the # of OH students scoring in the top ranges in 2011 was the lowest going back at least to 2008 (when the OH cutoff was 211)
NMSF slots are allocated among the states based on # of HS graduates. So unless OH is expected to have an historic drop in HS graduates this year, you have good reason to be optimistic (cautiously or otherwise).