I just have to note here that Smith is 99.9% need blind in its admissions decisions. While I don't know about Wellesley, Bryn Mawr, etc, there could be many reasons why someone is not accepted that have absolutely nothing to do with financial aid. Only in the rarest of circumstances is that ever even considered at Smith (and you have to remember that some women come to Smith from foreign countries in the middle of wars, from towns where everything they had was wiped out in man-made or natural disasters, many have families hurt badly by the recession).
It's always possible that FA plays a factor, but really that's the rarest of cases. More often it's some other intangible reason that rejected students, of which there are many each year, can't know. No one ever knows for sure why a school turned them down one year or took them the next. But certainly with a good dose of positive thinking, one can find the school that is right for them and matches their optimism with enthusiasm.