I mean you definitely have a shot but I don't think anyone can predict your chances with any accuracy. Duke accepts lots of people with your qualifications and also rejects hundreds/thousands of them at the same time. It's kind of a crapshoot. It's funny that you applied early to Penn instead of Duke for those listed reasons because among cross-admits to Duke and Penn, Duke wins handily--around 65% Duke/35% Penn. Anyway, best of luck at Duke, you are definitely in the running...and if you do get into both definitely come to Duke (I turned down Penn and couldn't be happier...lol granted I'm a little biased).