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First of all, don't assume that your d. will be rejected.
My son was a national merit finalist with great test scores, a higher weighted high school GPA than his sister, and a much better college-prep course load (5 years of math, 5 years lab sciences). He applied to 9 colleges, was accepted at 8, waitlisted at the other.
D. had a tough time with standardized tests and a quirky high school transcript -- more focused on arts, only 3 years of math, 2 lab sciences. So I was pretty worried and figured we were looking at the state U. She applied to 12 colleges, was accepted at 9, waitlisted at 2, and rejected by 1; the one that rejected her was an Ivy. (Son had not even tried to apply to Ivies; and she is the only one to actually have seen a rejection letter, but she also racked up more total admissions than he did).
Son went to a top-50 LAC, didn't do too well, took some time off and transfered to a state college off of the radar in terms of rankings. D. is at a higher-ranked LAC than her brother's, after turning down a spot at a top-10 university.
I'm not saying that it will necessarily happen that way in another family -- just that my daughter was not too happy by what she perceived as my lack of confidence in her during the college app season. Her older brother was incredibly supportive of her, told her the sky was the limit and that her test scores didn't matter, and really encouraged her to aim for her reaches.
What's important is that your younger child aim for the colleges that are a good fit and there really shouldn't be comparisons.
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