Well, you can read the admitted student stats yourself:
Admitted Freshman Statistics
Since you have to figure that around half the applicants in the middle range are rejected, and yours are below that, you can do the math yourself.
This year, apparently they had many more students accept offers of admission than they expected, so housing is very tight. (This is not at all surprising: DC in an election year in the most exciting election in a a generation, in a school for which political issues are in the forefront). The American Strategic Plan calls for them to decrease the size of the undergraduate student body, which will reduce your odds still further.