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Gatorcrazy, my daughter applied and was accepted RD 4 years ago, in what happened to be the statistically <i>most</i> selective year in all of Barnard's history. (That is, a lower percentage of applicants were accepted that year as compared to any other years -- applications to Barnard have actually fallen off slightly since then).
My daughter came from a public high school; she did not have a the so-called "most challenging" course load at her high school; her high school was reasonably good but not great academically; her standardized test scores were below the median score range for Barnard. She had good grades & recs, writes well, and had spent a semester abroad in high school. So in essence she had interesting stuff to put on her application, but nothing amazing.
My d. could not have applied ED for financial reasons, and I am glad that she applied RD. At the time she applied, she thought that Barnard was her top choice, but later she decided that Barnard was #2 and that NYU was her top choice. She was accepted to NYU as well but the financial aid there was not even remotely reasonable.
I'm glad that my d. applied RD. There was a lot of angst between December and March, but in the end she had amazing results. Finances limited her choices -- but obviously her RD status didn't hurt in any way. On the contrary -- I think she would have been deferred ED -- she also applied EA to University of Chicago, and was deferred there, though later admitted. I do not think that any college, including Barnard, has a reason to accept questionable students ED -- rather, I think that ED provides the colleges with an opportunity to lock in the students who the ad com is sure they want to accept. It also provides the school with an opportunity to lock in students who will be paying full tuition, given that most students who need significant financial aid will not risk ED.
The vast majority of applicants apply RD, though that may not be reflected in posts to this board.
I would say that applying RD to Barnard AND to other excellent colleges vastly increases your chances of acceptance *somewhere*, though not necessarily at Barnard. That is -- you have the opportunity to apply to multiple reach colleges as well as your safeties, and that can yield some pleasant surprises along the way. My daughter was accepted at 9 colleges -- there are no ED students who can say that! Of course she could attend only 1 -- but I think that she had more options, including the freedom to continue to explore new options along the way, rather than locking herself into an early choice.
So you are fine to apply RD. Don't think about it as a matter of "chances" -- think of it in terms of what is meant to be. That is - if you are a good fit for Barnard and the ad com can see that, you are likely to be accepted. If you are not accepted -- it might be a good thing in the long run, even though you will probably feel disappointed at the time (but maybe not too disappointed, if you are pleased with other acceptances).
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RD it is!
