lily-- I suggest you look at CMC's history of transfer admissions in their annual Common Data Sets (CDS), which can be found here:
http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/ir/cds.php
The most recent one for '08-'09 describes the incoming class freshman class of 2012, so it dates from not this past fall/winter/spring admissions season, but from the prior one. Section D of the CDS is on Transfer Admissions, and if I'm counting correctly, transfers for the '08-'09 CDS would be incoming sophs & juniors, classes of '11 & '10 respectively. So, even the most recent CDS is a bit outdated, but you can still glean some things that might help you.
From CDS Section D2 on the numbers...
CDS '08-'09: 264 applied, 86 accepted, 59 enrolled....33% acceptance rate
CDS '07-'08: 189 applied, 33 accepted, 20 enrolled....17% acceptance rate
CDS '06-'07: 205 applied, 22 accepted, 14 enrolled....11% acceptance rate
The '09-'10 CDS (freshman '13 and transfers '11 & '12) should be coming out in the late fall or early winter, so look for that on the web page periodically.
So from the numbers above, it would appear that its getting easier to be accepted as a transfer. Speculation here, but I'd bet that might be a temporary thing because I 'think' CMC has been working on slightly increasing its overall enrollment, and boosting transfers would be a logical way to augment this. (I could be wrong here, so if anyone else has any insight on an enrollment boost, please kick in.) If true, then I would expect transfer acceptance rates to taper back down sometime soon once the enrollment ramp up is achieved. Also, much will be dependent on CMC's yield for class of '13...haven't heard much about it yet, other than some banter here on CC that they filled up....meaning there will be less room for transfers...again, I don't know for sure.
Bottom line, statistically, I'd bet you have a ~15% to 20% shot.
Section D also points out a couple of things you should be mindful of....needless to say, you should work hard at getting some strong grades. If you apply for transfer this year, your 1st semester (often the most difficult to get good grades) will be the one most looked at. Second, I see that they recommend an interview.....you should try to do this.
Here is the comparable Pomona CDS page for you to peruse (all CDS's are formatted the same across schools, so look in Section D):
Institutional Research : Pomona College
& I also would not hestitate to call CMC admissions regarding what they think about transfers for your class of '13. A little direct interaction is always a good thing if you ask me, especially for a place like CMC that values leadership potential.
Good luck!
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