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My letter said they had 7750 applicants this year for 740 spots. I'm not sure what they're predicting their yield rate to be, but last year it was 33%. Using last year's yield rate puts them at 28.9% acceptance this year. Of course, if they predict a higher or lower yield rate that would affect the acceptance.
I heard Gary Ross speak at an event on campus this weekend. Despite the drop in applications, overall the applicant pool was the strongest ever. Colgate also made more financial aid offers this year.