SAT Score Frequencies and Freshman Class Sizes

tokenadult · 11-04-2007, 10:36 PM

Students often worry about whether their SAT scores are high enough to give them a chance to get into one of the most desired colleges in the country. A lot of students wildly overestimate the number of high-scoring students on the SAT. Each year, the College Board publishes in August figures for the previous graduating class of high school students showing the exact number of distinct individuals whose highest composite score was at a particular level in that graduating class.

http://professionals.collegeboard.co...ite_cr_m_w.pdf

What I show in this post are cumulative numbers of students in class of 2008 who scored at specified levels on the SAT, related to cumulative sizes of the enrolled freshman classes in fall 2007 for various sought-after colleges. The idea here is that once the most desired college in the United States has filled its entering class, all the other colleges have to dig deeper into the list of students with various SAT scores to fill their classes. I found the class sizes for each college through the College Board College QuickFinder website.

College Search - Find colleges and universities by major, location, type, more.

Every college, even Harvard, admits more students than it actually enrolls. But a student can only enroll in one college at a time, so a student who enrolls in College A won't fill up a spot in College B. Thus the charts in this post illustrate how many spots in how many different colleges' freshmen classes are available for the students trying to get into those colleges. Maybe your SAT score is already plenty high, and you don't need to worry about it.

http://professionals.collegeboard.co...ite_cr_m_w.pdf

Yeah, I know, colleges don't arrange applicants in strict rank order of test scores when deciding whom to admit. There was a whole long, interesting featured thread about that

How do top scorers on tests fail to gain admission to top schools?

issue earlier here on CC. And, yeah, I know that (a) some students don't take the SAT at all, but only the ACT. Moreover, (b) some students with high SAT scores don't apply to any college that will appear below. I'm going to make the wild but informed guess that factors (a) and (b) largely cancel each other out, so that the number of high SAT scorers is a rough-and-ready approximation of the number of students vying for the most sought-after colleges.

I present two charts with orderings of colleges below. I acknowledge that any such ordering is debatable. The first ordering is from the current ("2009") U.S. News guidebook, NOT listing the top-ranked colleges by the U.S. News methodology but rather the "best values" national universities and national liberal arts colleges ranked by the methodology described on page 153 of the book. (You can find the same lists online.) I interleaved the separate rankings of universities and LACs. My interleaving was arbitrary, but I preserved the exact order of each U.S. News list. Below that, I show another chart with the same list of cumulative numbers of top SAT scorers, this time with colleges arranged in the order shown in the revealed preferences working paper

SSRN-A Revealed Preference Ranking of U.S. Colleges and Universities by Christopher Avery, Mark Glickman, Caroline Hoxby, Andrew Metrick

(which is now being prepared by its authors for formal peer-reviewed journal publication).

All of your comments and questions are welcome. Enjoy.

Best Values Colleges Cumulative Class Sizes

Code:

Top SAT Scorers         "Best Values" Colleges 

score  cumulative n    name   cumulative enrollment 

2400       294      
2390       419          
2380       681      
2370      1015          
2360      1397
2350      1881     Harvard                    1668 
2340      2453     
2330      3117     Princeton                  2910 
2320      3870     
2310      4765     Yale                       4228 
2300      5683     MIT                        5295 
2290      6677     
2280      7789     Stanford, Caltech          7247 
2270      9059     Dartmouth                  8366 
2260     10411     Columbia, Amherst         10173 
2250     11971     Wms., Pomona, Wellesley   11678 
2240     13600     Grinnell, Swarthmore      12469 
2230     15344     
2220     17158     UNC Chapel Hill, Rice     17104 
2210     19260     
2200     21448     Penn, Duke                21189 
2190     23714     Chicago, 
2180     26087     V'bilt, M'bury, Sm., Mac  25947 
2170     28445     Clare., Colg., Wab., Carl 27718 
2160     31158     Bowdoin, SUNY Forestry    28444 
2150     34079     U VA, Brown               33171 
2140     37281     Emory, JHU,               35612 
2130     40617     NWU, Notre Dame           39584 
2120     44078     WUSTL, Lyon - Holyoke*    43767 
2110     47817     Trinity, Wes'an, Bryn     45428 
2100     51644     NC State                  50335 
2090     55582     Cornell, Case Western     54478 
2080     59837           
2070     64268           
2060     68990           
2050     73957           
2040     79100          
2030     84598           
2020     90233           
2010     96215 
2000    102383            


* Note to table: several small-enrollment LACs 
came next in the best value list. The complete 
span of these colleges is Lyon College, Agnes 
Scott College, Centre College, Hamilton College, 
Vassar College, Haverford College, Harvey Mudd 
College, and Mount Holyoke College.

Revealed Preferences Ranking Cumulative Class Sizes

Code:

Top SAT Scorers         Revealed Preference Rank 

score  cumulative n   name   cumulative enrollment 

2400       294     
2390       419         
2380       681     
2370      1015         
2360      1397
2350      1881     Harvard                 1668 
2340      2453     Caltech                 1899 
2330      3117     
2320      3870     Yale                    3217 
2310      4765     MIT                     4284 
2300      5683     
2290      6677     Stanford                6005 
2280      7789     Princeton               7247 
2270      9059     Brown                   8726 
2260     10411     Columbia               10059 
2250     11971     Amherst, Dartmouth     11652 
2240     13600     Wellesley              12242 
2230     15344     Penn                   14627 
2220     17158     Notre Dame             16618 
2210     19260     Swarthmore             16983 
2200     21448     Cornell                19993 
2190     23714     G'town, Rice, Wms.     22857 
2180     26087     Duke                   24557 
2170     28445     U VA                   27805 
2160     31158         
2150     34079     Brigham Young          32589 
2140     37281     Wesl'an, NWU, Pomona   35678 
2130     40617     GA Tech, Mid'bury      38952 
2120     44078     UC Berkeley            43177 
2110     47817     Chicago, JHU           45683 
2100     51644     S. Cal., Furman        49346 
2090     55582     UNC - Carleton*        55049 
2080     59837     Vanderbilt, Davidson   57187 
2070     64268     UCLA                   61751 
2060     68990     
2050     73957     UT Austin              69229 
2040     79100     U FL                   75670 
2030     84598     NYU                    80597 
2020     90233           
2010     96215 
2000    102383    


* Note to table: this span of colleges includes 
University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, 
Barnard, Oberlin, and Carleton.

tokenadult · 11-04-2007, 11:15 PM

A cumulative enrollment number reports the total enrollment of all colleges at that place or before on the list. Similarly, a cumulative number of students with such-and-such a score reports the total number of students who got that score or a higher score.

tokenadult · 11-05-2007, 11:22 AM

I'm wondering if anyone has any comments about this.

bluebayou · 11-05-2007, 11:45 AM

token:

I'll play, but I'm still not sure what the chart shows. Does Caltech have 269 perfect scorers? What does the second row represent?

Since I'm a little dense, could you take Harvard, for example, and explain the data in its row?

btw: I would not concur that a&b cancel each other out. Thank about 'Mudgette who was accepted at a bunch of places with only a strong ACT score.

NorthEastMom2 · 11-05-2007, 11:46 AM

Ok, so my child has a 2240 on her SATs.....So does your chart mean that 12,909 students receive the same or higher score ?? (ie, 2240-2400)

And regarding the chart, what information does this give me that is helpful is the whole college admissions process ? Is the implication that probably a top college will have a space for her, but she would have to apply to all of them to actually make sure she finds that space ?

tokenadult · 11-05-2007, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Ok, so my child has a 2240 on her SATs.....So does your chart mean that 12,909 students receive the same or higher score ?? (ie, 2240-2400)

Yes, that is what the chart means. Naturally, the exact figures change year by year. The figures in the chart are from high school class of 2007. The original College Board publication, which onlookers can use to check my addition, is at

http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_dow...tile_ranks.pdf

To me, this chart counteracts some of what I read here on CC about "to get into [famous college X] you have to have a score of [sky-high score]." Colleges that are really, really good have enough places in their entering classes that they MUST dig down into the score ranges to find the students they desire. A student with middling-high scores may as well apply boldly to the "reach" colleges of interest to that student. A student with especially high scores should take care not to leave undone the other things that are important for a strong college application,

How do top scorers on tests fail to gain admission to top schools?

but also apply boldly and make sure to compare offers rather than commit to an ED school unless that school is unquestionably the student's first choice.

For students with scores closer to the national medians, there will still be many spaces in such good colleges as those mentioned in my

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/...g-college.html

thread so that it is worth applying to those, whichever of those look to be a good fit, whether the student considers them a safety, a match, or a reach.

tokenadult · 11-05-2007, 12:08 PM

Quote:

I'm still not sure what the chart shows. Does Caltech have 269 perfect scorers? What does the second row represent?

Caltech had an enrolled freshman class of 234 students in the year reported in the 2007 U.S. News college guide. It is the one college small enough that it could, if it would, enroll only 2400-scorers. All larger colleges MUST enroll some students with less-than-perfect scores, just to fill their classes.

Of course students with peak SAT scores apply to lots of different colleges, and colleges sometimes decline to admit students with peak SAT scores. Thus NO college ends up only admitting students with peak scores, and thus all students with less-than-peak scores have at least some legitimate shot (based on factors other than scores) at getting into highly sought-after colleges.

There are a lot of conclusions that might be drawn from this. I'm curious which conclusion(s) could influence the college application list of students you know.

menloparkmom · 11-05-2007, 12:08 PM

I get what token is trying to show- there are as many high scoring students each year as there are total openings in top colleges. But high scoring students will most probably apply to multiple colleges because there are many other factors than SAT scores that determine the likelyhood of receiving an acceptance letter.

monydad · 11-05-2007, 12:12 PM

I don't get it. dunce cap will nicely cover bald spot.

tokenadult · 11-05-2007, 12:12 PM

Quote:

But high scoring students will most probably apply to multiple colleges because there are many other factors than SAT scores that determine the likelyhood of receiving an acceptance letter.

Indeed. No one at any scoring level should assume he or she is a shoo-in at a college with a low base acceptance rate. And some students who might not be characterized as "high scoring students" (depending on where one draws that line) may still get into a college that is plainly a top college--students might as well aim high when they apply, after they have done their best on their tests.

Schmoomcgoo · 11-05-2007, 12:23 PM

Hmmm...so, would you say that an applicant with a 2110 and a commensurate GPA with average EC's can reasonably expect admittance to colleges not on these lists?

2blue · 11-05-2007, 12:40 PM

I agree wholeheartedly that no student at any score level can assume he or she is a shoo-in.

One thing that comes to my mind when looking at the figures is that for marketing purposes it seems to colleges' advantage to superscore SATs. By doing so the 25-75 percentiles the school reports will be higher which, in turn, seems like it would improve the school's reputation. It benefits students also, of course.

I'm curious. With just 269 perfect scorers, do you think schools would be more likely to admit an applicant who took the SAT just once and got a 2400, as opposed to someone who superscored the same over several re-takes?

SarahsDad · 11-05-2007, 01:04 PM

I'd recommend caution using this data to "predict" how many kids scored higher than you. As noted above, these numbers are for SATs taken on a single sitting. For instance, I suspect there are way more than 269 kids with 2400 superscored, which is (supposedly) the way most admission offices would look at it.

tokenadult · 11-05-2007, 02:04 PM

Colleges have given up trying to distinguish one-time test-takers from two-time or three-time or even four-time test-takers, because that wasn't useful information to the colleges. There are a number of reasons for that.

1) The colleges have utterly no way of knowing who spends all his free time practicing taking standardized tests and who takes them "cold."

2) The colleges are well aware that students who have actually taken the tests sometimes cancel scores, so they have little incentive to give students bonus consideration if the students submit only one test score.

3) The colleges are aware that students who take the admission tests at middle-school age, who are numerous, do not have their earlier test scores submitted by default.

SAT Younger than 13

Hoagies' Gifted: Talent Search Programs

Duke TIP - Interpreting SAT and ACT Scores for 7th Grade Students

4) Colleges are aware that the majority of students who take the SAT at all take it more than once.

http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_dow...rageScores.pdf

5) Colleges are in the business of helping students learn, and they don't mind students taking efforts to improve their scores. They know that students prepare for tests.

Quote:

Originally Posted by New York Times

Although coaching would no doubt continue if subject tests replaced the SAT, at least students would be focused on content as much as test-taking strategies, Mr. Murray said. There would also be pressure to improve local high school curriculums so that students were prepared, he wrote.

These arguments make sense to Mr. Fitzsimmons [dean of admission at Harvard], who said, “People are going to prepare anyway, so they might as well study chemistry or biology.” He added that “the idea of putting more emphasis on the subject tests is of great interest” to his group.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/19/ed...gewanted=print

Colleges treat applicants uniformly now by considering their highest scores, period.

A Retake on How Many Times to Take the SAT or ACT

http://www.admissions.college.harvar...deApplying.pdf

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harvard admission office

If you submit more than one set of scores for any of the required tests, the Admissions Committee considers only your best scores—even if your strongest SAT Subject Tests or portions of the SAT Reasoning Test were taken on different dates.

tokenadult · 11-05-2007, 02:11 PM

Quote:

suspect there are way more than 269 kids with 2400 superscored

I know other parents who participate here on CC suspect that, but I don't suspect that. I think that there are somewhat more, but not a lot more, students who are counted by colleges as having a 2400 than the number of students who gained that score in one sitting. The College Board chart

http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_dow...tile_ranks.pdf

reports the highest single-sitting score of each distinct individual in high school class of 2007 who took the SAT. Most test-takers, as a matter of group averages, gain ground on each section as they retest.

http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_dow...rageScores.pdf

When I asked students

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/...ml#post4468294

about superscoring, most reported that it gives them confidence to try to take the test again, but then their overall composite score increases anyhow, so that superscoring doesn't really add to their considered score as contrasted with single-sitting consideration.