lifegr, I'm in the same situation as you.
my gpa and extracurriculars say that my dream schools a big reach,
and the comments from teachers and parents aren't helping much either.
But like emgamac said, "what if?" i think just giving it a shot and failing and getting it over with is much better than spending a lifetime wondering what if and regretting for not having tried at all. Sometimes, I think that all that i'm doing right now is futile and not worth the possible humiliation and risk. But when you look back on it later, it really is nothing, and you will wish that you had dared to do more.
Right now, I'm depending heavily on my essays and the ACT (i'm abt to take tom... lol)
and my "special circumstances". Hopefully, whatever result comes out will be the best for me.. and I wish you the best too! Good luck