Duke will probably drop as its PA will stay at a dreadfully low 4.4.
Duke's 4.4 PA score is "dreadfully low"? Oh, puhleeze. There are exactly 11 private universities and one public with higher PA scores than Duke, and 5 of those schools have overall US News rankings equal to or below Duke's. The schools ranking ahead of Duke, in part because of higher PA rankings? Well, that would be HYPSM + Caltech + Penn. Of these schools, the only one that's even conceivably contestable is Penn, but Penn has a lower acceptance rate, a higher freshman retention rate, a higher graduation rate, more admits in the top 10% of their HS class, fewer classes with less than 20 students, etc., etc. Not to mention a stronger faculty overall.
When will Dookies stop whining about their school's PA score, which is pretty much irrelevant to Duke's standing in the US News rankings except possibly as a factor that's helping it maintain its high place in said standings?