AnonAnnay

What do Columbian students currently think about the safety of major metropolitan cities like NY, especially after 911?

I just told my econ teacher about my goals of studying in NY and he looks at me like some crazy fool. Then he tells me that he won't be surprised if "NY gets nuked or submerged in the Atlantic within a couple of years."

Personally I think he has watched too many movies. To be honest he's the type of guy that makes crazy/outrageous remarks or speculations.

But I guess he does raise an important point about terrorism in our current world.

d4r7h3v1l

You're more likely to be killed by a car anywhere else than by terrorism in New York City.

Godfatherbob

Deaths in America 1999-2007:

Caused by smoking:
~3,200,000

By suicide:
~25,000

Automobile accidents:
~350,000

Due to terrorism:
~3,000

Falling off your bed, chair, or other furniture:
~5,000

But why just take the years surrounding 9/11? Take the last 50 years of American history, instead. There were a lot less people back then, so let's say only one forth the amount of people died during those years than these, sooo:

Falling off your bed, chair, or other furniture:
~15,000

Terrorism:
Hmmm, still 3,000.

What about 200 years?

Falling off your bed, chair, or other furniture:
~30,000?

Terrorism:
Still 3,000.

There you go: you're 10 times more likely to fall of your bed and die than be killed in a terroristic attack. Happy? (Rhetorical question, I just spent 20 minutes googling these ridiculous statistics. You better be happy. . . .)

QuixoticRick

That just made my day. You rock! Haha.

NightOwl1082

Now all we need to worry about is the big-ass lizard from "Cloverfield"...

kwu

"But I guess he does raise an important point about terrorism in our current world."

That's right, no extremist would wage a jihad against the grain fields of the Midwest, that's for sure...

tongchen1226

im just gonna randomly satirize Godfatherbob:
# of people died of old age/accidents since pre-history: innumerable
# of people died of AIDS: 25 million.
conclusion: You are more likely to die for reasons other than AIDS. Happy?

Columbia2002

Your attempt at satire doesn't really make sense.

How few hetero Americans die of AIDS these days, anyway?

Not sure what this proves either. If you don't smoke, you probably won't die of smoking. If you're 18 years old, you probably won't die of falling off furniture; that's for old people. If you're a Columbia student, you probably won't die in a car accident.

The threat of terrorism, however slight, should be of greater concern to a non-smoker Columbia student. But it's still miniscule.

tongchen1226

no, i was pointing out the fact that godfather was comparing the deaths from terrorism to deaths from falling off chair in the past TWO HUNDRED YEARS. we might as well extend the period back to pre-history.

AnonAnnay

I can't believe no one quoted Freakonomics stats yet.

Halie

You're more likely to die of a giant storm a la The Day After Tomorrow.

justcallmebob

The whole point of terrorism is that it is an uncertain phenomena, unlike falling off of furniture, which I would imagine takes a similar amount of lives per year. It only takes one major terrorist attack to completely change those statistics.

Not to be pessimistic or anything, and I don't think people should base life decisions around avoiding terrorists, but your guys' analysis misses the whole point of terrorism. On an even simpler level, why are you using national statistics to address a question specifically about studying in New York? You are ignoring a very obvious opportunity to simplify the statistical sample for more meaningful comparison.

The way to answer this question is to consider the chances terrorists will seriously try to attack New York City, the chances authorities will be able to stop them, and how much of New York City would be affected by this potential attack. I believe the chances of the first are very slim (Al-Quaeda seem to be focused on Europe at the moment, and they have lost some of their fervor anyway due actually to pacifist Muslim backlash, plus they have their hands full in the middle east) - and are set to decrease further after Bush leaves office, the chances of the second are very high, and that the chances of the attack being more ambitious than 9/11 (which physically harmed a very small percentage of New Yorkers, few of them Columbia students) is very, very small.

Also, you have to weigh these risks against the risk of living elsewhere, which is not much smaller anywhere else in the world.

In short, don't worry about it.

Denzera

Nobody who's lived in NYC for more than a year really considers it an unsafe place to live with respect to terrorism. No matter what you may think of our current administration (and I think rather little), the odds of a terrorist strike killing many people, even in NYC, is very, very very tiny. Certainly too tiny to base your major life decisions around.

Frankly, even the run-of-the-mill safety issues of living in a big city are much less in new york than in other major cities. The difference is night-and-day from (say) 1990. statistically, in terms of crime rates per person, new york is practically a suburb.

confidentialcoll

Denzera please! don't blanket this thread with your false (and highly dangerous) sense of security. It's a suburb that's going to be blown up and fragmented, heck the terrorists are just creating a period of lull so they can hit us even harder. But we can beat them, here's how:

1) next time someone walks on the subway with a stroller, lift the baby out and check for explosives (do the same to handbags and boxes)
2)As far as possible use the subway and otherwise crowded streets only in the dead of the night.
3)DON'T FLY, like at all, if you're an international student just stay on campus or holiday in the US or take some obscure airline, that'll likely not make it to the destination (that way even if the terrorists use your plane, they can't succeed)
4) don't attend large gatherings, even on campus like the varsity show or orgo night
5)if you see anyone suspiciously silent on the streets go confront them, even homeless people.

this is the only way we can win. get a clue, Denzera.

Eravial08

Um, still a huge number; the majority of all AIDS deaths are among heterosexuals. HIV is still a huge problem, especially in impoverished areas where people either don't have the money to protect themselves or they simply don't know how.