risha, your math seems to be off.
If they were reserved for the "top 1%"--whatever that means--that would mean that 99% would not get them.
It seems likely to me that the order in which apps are read has something to do with it. They send out likelies in a few waves. There have been kids who got likelies here who did not, at least according to the info they gave us, seem more qualified than many others who did not get one. I would assume that they take a look through the special piles first--URMs, for example--and send likelies to the high-statted URMs that all of the top schools are competing to recruit.