It does all depend on your lottery number, but since linking is gone starting this year (I think?), I believe it may be even harder to get a single as a sophomore. All I know for sure is that last year, they told us sophomores don't get singles very often; the best chance you had was if you were linking to Edens (and linking to Edens was only possible as a person in certain dorms, it's not the same as just choosing to live there).
On the other hand, the end of linking may help sophomores get singles, especially as juniors/seniors move from Edens to the main quad and leave behind Edens. I'm not sure anyone knows how it will work out exactly quite yet.
Moral of the story: don't plan on getting a single as a sophomore, there's a good chance you'll be disappointed.