So I've been reading a lot of the "chances" threads and been curious for a while about how accurate people are. I'd like to see what people think of the following applicant's chances. I'm going to post the stats of a friend of mine who applied to Harvard the same year as I did (for class of 2009), and I want people to discuss his/her chances like he/she was applying today. As a sidenote, this is not intended to trip people up, this person is a friend of mine who gave me permission to use the stats, these are not my stats (it's pretty clear I go to Harvard so it'd be pretty easy to evaluate what my chances were). I'm obviously not going to tell you where they go to school now, b/c that would ruin the fun. Anyways, here goes...
School: Small private, OH
Current Year: NA (stats below stand as they would have on the app)
GPA: 4.67 (weighted) 3.9 (unweighted)
SAT I: 730 M, 790 Verbal Total 1530 (this was back when there were only 2 sections)
SAT II's: 790 Bio, 800 Writing, 730 Spanish, 760 Math IC
AP Scores: 5's in Biology, Chemistry, US History, English Literature, and Spanish Lang.
AP's to take Senior Year: French Lang., Spanish Lit., BC Calc
Cum Laude inductee Junior Year
National Merit Scholar
3rd in US on Level III French Language Test (Le Concours National de Francais)
4 Year Varsity Soccer and Lacrosse Player (Captain of both Senior year, 1st team all-Southwest OH soccer)
Page editor of school newspaper
4 year's of winter musical (soloist Junior year)
Class Secretary/Treasurer Freshman-Senior Year
President Model UN
Founder and President of School Climbing Club
Lived in England for 6 years (from 3 years-10 years)
Certified climbing guide (I guess this would be the 'passion' of the applicant: he/she has extensive climbing and hiking experience, and wrote his/her main essay about it)
I already found out that I'm no good at predicting chances. I don't see the whole admission file for any student, and I DEFINITELY don't see the whole pile of files that go into committee. I simply don't know what anyone's chances are.
Actually, I disagree with the fact that we should refrain from posting on chances threads. I have personally found them very constructive as they helped me focus on my activities, and my passions. It is very important to understand where you stand, particularly in terms of SATs and grades.
The problem with chances threads is that you can't ever say anyone is certain to get in. I could say someone's chances are 1 in 4 instead of 1 in 10. (That 1 in 4 is about what I estimate my son's chances to be based on school acceptance history.) But what will make or break most applications isn't what is posted here. It's the essays, the recommendations and the total picture the applicant presents.
I bet he was accepted. I suspect the OP is trying to make a point by showing us an average white guy who is well rounded, thinking that we will rip him apart for not standing out in the competitive applicant pool. Then after enough people have criticized him, the OP will come back and tell us that the kid is a member of Harvard Class of '09 and that chances threads are a waste of time.
If I saw this in a real chances thread, I would probably predict a rejection.
The problem with chances threads is that you can't ever say anyone is certain to get in.
True, yet how does that limit chances threads? Does it make any difference if one of the posters at a chances thread says that you won't get in and eventually you do? Nope. Que sera sera. So, in spite of the fact that essays, recommendations and interviews are indeed missing, all the rest is evaluated, and SAT scores, GPA and extracurriculars are crucial for an application. To me, it does not make any difference whether or not a chances thread is completely accurate, as long as it is critical enough..IMO.