There's no consensus whether applying ED increases someone's odds. Proponents point to ED admission rates being higher than general admission rates. The opposition responds that ED rates are probably higher because the ED pool has a higher concentration of "desirable" applicants (like recruited athletes or legacies).
My own impression is that most colleges don't like to admit international financial aid applicants early. Unless the applicant is truly impressive or outright unqualified, needy international applicants seem to get deferred to the RD round and evaluated together with all other international applicants then. Which makes sense: if your resources are extremely limited, you don't want to waste them before you see all of your options.
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Since ED is not binding if one is not given financial aid, I'd gladly go down that route if it meant I'd have greater chances of being accepted.
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It's not quite as clear-cut as you may think. Your financial aid offers will probably be less generous than you'd like. How would you respond to an offer that's doable with some sacrifices (like your parents using some of their retirement savings or taking out a small mortgage on the family home)? You can turn it down, but it may end up being the most generous offer that you'll receive.
