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Because you can predict the future six months from now, right? One undiversified bank collapse =! complete industry destruction.
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You know, I like to lean towards optimism, but it's one undiversified bank collapse, one well diversified bank dive where the end result is still unknown, all banks with multibillion dollar write downs, increased displacement leading to increased crime, a Fed that has done everything it can and the debt markets are still nuts, a massive acceleration in commodities, job losses, presumed stagnation in wage increases, massive losses at the major institutions (this will actually end up being a good thing, banks have been overreaching their bounds in general over the last 10 years), the looming shadow of inflation, one of the largest debt holders in Britain having to be nationalized because of fear of it starting a massive cascade in the Western EU unlike what we have even seen in the US, rising negativity to bailing out EU member states from the interior European countries that are aiding Spain and England, manufacturing at record lows, property values are way down and yet still are nowhere near their proper valuation (boy will it be fun when bank inventories get slashed massively all at once, first time since 01 it'll be worth shorting an index fund since ETFs are exempt) and uh... Probably a bunch of other stuff I'm forgetting since I haven't slept in while.
We are in a recession, we have been in a recession since October. Whether or not we'll see class-specific depression sprout up is another matter, and we are most certainly not at the bottom--especially with Fed bailouts, which are postponing the inevitable and will only make the rampant inflation we see at the back end of this worse. I suspect we'll see some prosecution at the middle/end of this as well, financing of predatory loans was underwritten by major banks, and it will be difficult for any analyst to say they were unaware that properties, even in precon, were being flipped at unheard of levels, prompting an artificial inflation in home prices. Conscious parallelism will be almost impossible to prove, but expect people to scream about it, making this even worse.
Bad time to try and get an entry level job in IB. Probably okay in other fields, but it'll be tough. Really, bad time for everyone but commodities traders.
I think the cherry on the top of this will be the antitrust lawsuits you can expect about 4 years from now.
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