88keys

Here's a cool little proof that an EA applicant improves their chance of being admitted by applying early by more than 2 times (true number is 2.35)

Here we go:

1) MIT had 2965 Early Applicants last year.

2) Of all EA applicants, 377 were admitted during EA and 295 were admitted during Reg action
(the major reason for this is space limitations during EA)

3) Anyway the total amount of regular action applicants (not including the deferred EA-ers) was 8408

4) The number of admitted students during reg action (including deferred) was 1106 students

5) We can conclude then that the number of reg action admissions excluding deferred EA-ers was 1106 - 295 = 811

6) So now we can see that the percent of only reg action applicants admitted was 811 / 8408 = 9.65%

7) We can also see that the percent of all EA-ers that eventually got admitted was (377 + 295) / 2965 = 22.66%

8) Therefore, by taking the percents, the chance of being ultimately accepted by applying during EA is 22.66 / 9.65 = 2.35 times better than the chance of applying during Reg action.

9) Obviously, this is just me with some time on my hands, but I though it was kinda cool (especially considering how MIT brags about how their EA admission rate is lower than reg action (377 / 2965 = 12.7 %). They just don't tell you that later they accept another 295 / (2965 - 377) = 11.4 % of EA applicants.

Any thoughts? other than the fact that MIT is "not about numbers its about being yourself and ECs and blah blah blah" kinda stuff?

By the way here's were I got the info:
http://www.mitadmissions.org/topics/...ns_statistics/

Im thinking about bringing this up with my Stats teacher. He might appreciate how MIT can say "We only accept 12.7% of EA candidates which is less than the 13.3% overall acceptance rate," while I can say "EA applicants have a 22.7% rate of being ultimately accepted compared to the reg action candidates who's acceptance rate is only 9.6%."

molliebatmit

The only problem is that by saying "applying EA increases your chances," you are assuming that the two pools are of equal strength.

MIT completely reconsiders EA applicants who were deferred, so those students who get in after being deferred are considered to be among the strongest applicants in the EA deferred + RD pool -- if the RD pool were exceptionally strong one year, you might assume that fewer deferred EA students would get in that year.

So applying early action doesn't necessarily "increase" your chances; being an outstanding candidate increases your chances.

sran

Correlation vs. causality.

pequnio3

Yayy statistics!!

LousantAce

lurking variable: The strength of the RD pool

88keys

Yup. Strengths of the pools are definitely lurking variables!