cicero_oratore

Yeah so this is a just for fun formula that I came up with to predict your chances at getting into MIT (or any school) using a standard normal curve and an exponential model to predict percentages from there. The first part is pretty straight forward, but the parts after are my experimental twists.

Take your math and CR scores and divide by 20 (if the school looks at the writing section, add in the writing section and then divide by 30). Do the same with your two highest SAT scores. Take your weighted GPA and divide by the highest weighted GPA in your class and multiply that by 80. Add those numbers together. Now use the table below for your weighted academic ranking (this table is for MIT; it will vary from school to school)

230-240 = 5
220-229 = 4
210-219 = 3
200-209 = 2
199 and less = 1

Rank your extracurriculars and awards in a similar 1-5 scale. Most should have EC/awards ranging in the 2-4 area. I am still working on how to judge this part, but 5 should be national/international, 4 state/province/big district, 3 local/school, 2 no recognition/leadership at any level but participation in local/state level, 1 negligible ECs (again, this applies to MIT; schools of less rigor would probably have more lenient scoring).

Essays also should go on a 1-5 scale, but again, this is very subjective. Grade essays on adherence to topic, creativity, alignment with the school's qualities.

Please, feel free to use decimals for greater accuracy.

Square the three scores and add them, then take the square root of them. Divide by square root of 75 (highest possible score) and then multiply by 5. This gives you your raw overall score.

The distribution is assumed to be a standard normal distribution, with 5 being 3 standard deviations away from the mean (score of 3). Calculate your z-score by taking your raw score, subtract 3, then multiply by 1.5 (standard deviation is 2/3). Now I feel that a linear model of acceptance rate would be quite unrealistic. So I used an exponential model (with e as the base). Use the following formula to determine your chance of acceptance (as a percentage):

e^((ln(%accepted)+(zscore)ln(100/%accepted)/3)

For MIT, %accepted would be around 10. Check it out and see what you think.

littlemikey4

hahaha nice

fontaine

I only have a 8% chance, going to go withdraw my apps

Djokovic

can you just make an Excel file with those formulas programmed?

oasis

47.8%

Don't know how the heck you came up with all these, but good job; it was quite interesting =p

la montagne

49.9%. Really interesting.

k4r3n2

Hey man what about the ACT? People from the Midwest get in too, you know :P

proace360

22.3%

Better than expected haha

dunbar

33.57% .

cicero_oratore

Hmm, I forgot about ACT. Just use a conversion chart to SAT for that. Also, this is supposed to be a raw type of chances. I still have to work out the whole URM/special cases/recruited athletes into the formula...but for the run of the mill applicant (hooked extracurricular/awards wise or normal unhooked) this seems to still work out fine. When I did mine out it was in the 40s somewhere. What I figure is you have a good shot if you are in the top %admitted (zscore of ~1.3 for MIT) and if you are in the top .3% (zscore ~2.75), then you have an extremely high chance of admission.

kemcab

Although my chances are higher than what I think they are even when I lowballed my GPA and ECs, I still don't like the idea of it. It seems a bit faithless to quantify a subjective decision.

cicero_oratore

Its not quantifying a decision. It is coming up with a rough estimate of what your real chances are using your academic stats, scaled rating of your extracurriculars and awards (with a bit in between if you fit in between a category), and a subjective rating of your essays and recommendations which are rated by a certain set of criteria. When people see 10% admitted, that doesn't necessarily mean you personally have a 10% shot. Some people have a higher shot than others. Yes, I understand that the top 10% do not automatically get in, that's why my formula returns a percent chance of you getting in. It is not something that decides whether you are in or not; I find it to be a more useful tool than a chance thread.

k4r3n2

Where did you get your weightings from for the various components, by the way? Was it just from logic, or did you do research, or what?

eevvaann22

haha, my chance seems to high to be true...70.6%??!? I legitimately received a 5 for academics, gave myself a 3 for essays which should be about what they'll end up as since they've been corrected two or three times...

I gave myself a 4 for extracurrics, which I'm not sure about; but, I'm pretty high up in ASB at my school, have put on a few strong performances at math competitions, and Coach Dill of the Men's Volleyball team insists that his recs to the admissions office are taken seriously.

That being said, my z-score with 5, 4, 3 was 1.62...which puts me in the top 5-6%? I'm happy of course, but really hesitant to get my hopes up -_-

cicero_oratore

eevvaann22 I think you made a mistake with your calculation. It should be 34.773% by my formula, not 70.6%.

As to developing the formula...

I originally watched an MIT admissions video and went to a Splash class at MIT on admissions. From the MIT admissions video, I found that what they do is that they rank the students on a scale, with one axis being academics ranging from 1-5 and the other being extracurriculars/awards. I added in essays and recs. Then I figured that the distribution of students applying probably follows a normal curve, with most applicants falling in the 3 range and very few being at the extremes. Using that I went on an assumption that chances of admissions does not increase linearly, from looking at Princeton admissions statistics. It probably rises/falls the most at the extremes and is little affected near the mean. Since the normal curve is based on a natural exponential function, I also based my % chances of acceptance on a natural exponential function.