| sigh.....
My being optimistic
More top students are applying to more top schools than ever. Those who get in at one school will be the cream of the crop, and have more options, more so than previous years because they are the cream of the crop. Hence, yields will drop. MIT's expected yield is 66.5%. A yield of 65.2% like last year would allow for 20 spots. A yield of 64%, still very reasonable, would allow for 40 spots. Not all waitlisted will accept spots, and not all waitlist admits will enroll. I figure 400 kids remain on the waitlist, and 50 kids admitted from it, so 50/400 = 12.5% chance of being admitted off the waitlist, better then regular admissions odds.
My being pessimistic
A tiny error in the yield could easily provide those extra ten students. In addition, transfers could be admitted into the freshman class. Also, kids deferring from last year might not be fully offset by kids deferring this year. So 10 waitlist admits is still very optimistic. The number should be closer to 0. Even if we do have ten, then 10/499 = 2%, worse than the international admit rate. And they might decide later not to expand to 1020. And all this is IF they admit an extra 10 kids. |