halflokum

I could be misunderstanding you but I thought what you were pondering was an extension of the original post which does deal with the subject of getting admitted into a college program. I took what you said to essentially mean that you felt it was less about number of schools to apply to and more about having a way to measure the relative talent to decide of your own child has “got it”.

I get where you are coming from and believe me; I’ve also asked myself the same question since this is a really big leap and also a huge investment. But in the end I concluded that I did not need to look anywhere but right at my daughter to know the answer. I think any parent that experiences one of those “how how how does he/she do that?” moments that move you beyond words and touch you to your core knows what I’m talking about. Think of any truly great moment on stage or on screen where you’ve had that reaction whether it was your own kid or someone else’s, Meryl Streep, Laurence Olivier, Steve Carrell, Elmo (OK I’m stretching this) etc… How do they do that? Can your kid do that? If they can, they’ve got it.

It was that moment and many others that followed that I knew I might as well stop hoping for sustaining the interest in science and engineering as jeffandann laments  If you’re there, you can build your list of schools on all of the other factors that determine fit. It’s still daunting but it’s doable. We’re a year ahead of you. We’ve got the list. The applications are all in and she is working her way through the auditions. She will not get in everywhere but that will not be because every school on her list is not a good fit. They all are good fits and she will get into one or more of them for sure. She does not control the number of other candidates that are also good fits so there is no point in worrying about it.

Best of luck!


@jeffandann just seeing your post as I'm replying to ActingDad... it depends on the school that you are applying to. Some schools truly focus on the audition and others take a hard look at the academic standing, recommendations etc. so the answer is: it depends.

halflokum

also @jeffandann in a universe where there is often many equally talented kids for every spot, there is a lot of discussion on other posts about things like: type, alumni connections, feeder schools also coming into play. That is why I'm saying you might as well focus on what you can control and usually that means your own preparation and the fit of the schools you decide to chase.

classicalbk

How can you tell? I am now a bigger fan of summer intensives run by professional theatres rather than other organizations because in my very large, theatre-heavy city, I have seen students go from the intensive straight to an equity job. This is a pretty good sign the student is not totally spinning his/her wheels. Put your face in front of pros (people who direct and/or cast equity level shows) in some sort of situation where the pros give feedback and see what happens.
I also found it helpful to run my student up to NYC to let her experience the joy of the sit-around-all-day-and-pray-to-be-seen auditions, to see if she had the mental fortitude as well as the talent. I didn't want to discover any faintness of heart after four years of college payments!

halflokum

You make a valid point classicalbk. From my experience though, casting for equity jobs for anyone under the age of 18 is also very much a function of who shows up. I know many extremely talented kids that do not show up at that age because it is too much of a trade off for their regular school work and or requires a family disruption (like a temporary relocation) for one or more of the parents. In the end the kids that make the sacrifices have to be legitimately talented, but I would not say more talented than many of the kids that "just say no" (or whose parents do anyway) at that slice of time in their young lives. So for us as a measure of "how can you tell?" that system would never work. But truly a valid measure for many others. :-)

Lookin4ward

Nice analysis. I haven't read the follow up threads but did you account for higher degree of success for local applicants or in state vs distance and out of state.

Wheaty

EmsDad,

I want to return to one of Soozievt's comments early in this interesting thread: from a math model standpoint, how do you handle the non-serious applicant?

Without meaning to sound mean (I'm not), every year there are applicants to elite BFA programs (Fine Art, music, MT, acting, film, etc.) that have zero chance of acceptance. In some cases it's not knowing how high the bar really is, and in other cases the application is treated as sort of a lottery ticket. In either case the real chance is still zero.

How could you calculate the real odds for the serious applicant?

Best Regards,
Wheaty

PS. I'm an interloper from the Fine Arts / Film forum and I got sucked in to this interesting topic.

Flossy

This is interesting but largely meaningless in my humble opinion. Firstly, not all students have the same chance. Some are simply more talented than others. This will increase their odds. Some dance. Some don't. Some schools care. Some don't. Also, not all BFA programs are created equal. There are some very selective schools where the odds of being accepted are put at 2-4 percent while at others acceptance rates are closer to 30-percent. And while there are no shoe-ins anywhere anymore, there are certainly some students who end up with many nice choices and every year there are many more who are shut out completely. Most of them are not posting on these boards but I personally can name half a dozen right now without much effort so I'm guessing the number is quite large. Quality of program also was a huge factor for my kid. Just getting accepted to program somewhere with a BFA, regardless of overall rep of school or training was not the goal. It's a very individual process.

EmsDad

@Lookin4ward: The short answer to your question is no, in trying to estimate what probability or set of probabilities may apply to the model in the OP it is not possible from the available data to account for bias from the applicant's location. However, you can factor the probability derived from the available data to reflect a bias that you believe applies. I will add that I was not aware that an in-state/oos bias existed in any general form in the MT BFA application process, in fact, my impression was just the opposite, i.e., BFA programs wanted the best talent no matter where it comes from.

EmsDad

@Wheaty: you are correct, the odds for a well-qualified applicant are obviously high, while there are some applicants whose odds are basically zero. It turns out that the applicability of the model in the OP encompasses both high and low probability applicants.

Let's look at the example of soozievt's daughter. According to the data provided by soozievt, her daughter achieved 5 acceptances in 8 auditions (counting only the definite acceptances noted). This gives an observed average probability of acceptance of 62.5%. For someone who had similar skills, type, and talent who applied to a similarly-applicable set of schools, their probability will be basically the same.

Therefore, using the model in OP, an applicant with a probability of success in any given audition of 62.5% (0.625) would only need 3 auditions to achieve a 95 percent confidence of getting at least one acceptance. Soozievt's daughter did more than 3 and, with that high probability of success given her talent and skills matched against the schools for which she auditioned, received 5 acceptances in 8 auditions.

Meanwhile, there were probably applicants in the same set of auditions as soozievt's daughter that had a lower probability of success and received only 1-2 acceptances and perhaps none. That this occurs is substantiated by the very low acceptance rates quoted in this forum for many of the top schools (some quotes are as low as 1-2%). Trying to determine how many auditions to do based on the very low overall acceptance rates would NOT be a very good strategy because it would include many applicants that had basically ZERO chance of success in the process. Hence, a well-prepared, talented applicant choosing wisely would be well-served to base their audition strategy on a higher probability of success.

But what probability should you use for your personal strategy? As noted in my previous posts, if you look at the CC "acceptance" threads you will see that the average number of acceptances is around 2.37 and the average number of auditions is 8.24. Therefore, using these numbers, the average acceptance rate for people who succeed and post on CC is around 29%. To achieve a 95 percent confidence of gaining at least one acceptance with a probability of success of 29%, applicants who are able to match their talent and skills in the same manner as the average of CC posters should therefore do 9 auditions using the model in the OP. If you do 9 auditions and match your talent and skills to schools BETTER than the people who post acceptances on CC, then odds are that you will receive several acceptances. If you don't choose as wisely, then you will perhaps not fare as well.

Hence, for any individual, the question is "how good do you feel your chances are for the set of schools that you have chosen?" The math on this is actually a little complicated, since you may adopt a strategy something like this:

3 auditions at "lottery schools" where your odds are 1 in 10 (0.1 or 10%) [this is not to say that the odds are only as low as 1 in 10 for very competitive schools, they are probably very close to zero for many applicants. This is assuming that your talent/skills/type gives you a 1 in 10 chance at these schools, whatever they are]

3 auditions at "decent fit and higher acceptance rate" schools where your odds are pretty good, say 1 in 2 (0.5 or 50%)

2 auditions at "solid fit and relatively high acceptance rate" schools where your odds are very good, say 3 in 4 (0.75 or 75%)

Your overall odds of success are not exactly the average of the individual odds but a simple average gives a reasonable estimate for the purposes of our analysis, in this case it turns out your average overall probability would be around 27.5% and the probability of getting at least one acceptance would be approximately 93.5 percent. So, using the approach above looks reasonable. However, you may want to add one additional school to get your odds above 95 percent and the school that you add should be one where your odds are at least 27.5 percent (around 1 in 4). Adding another “lottery school” won’t help your odds much.

It may be that the odds for certain applicants at certain auditions are very close to 100 percent, but that seems unlikely, given the very low number of slots available, the large number of applicants, and the desire for diversity in the entrant pool on the part of schools (they don't want to have all short, blonde, sopranos). It seems likely that several applicants of the basically the same talent, skills, and type will audition and the school will not choose all of them, no matter how high the level of talent and skill they possess.

Times3

I asked a college rep this very question--whether at her public university there was any advantage to being in-state for an auditioned program--and she said no, they don't consider in-state status. I'd guess that this is pretty typical (the state is Virginia, btw).

lojosmo

There are no Michigan residents in the freshman class at UMich.

MichaelNKat

In follow up of austinmom's post 65, this is a link to a post describing the type of process we used to determine fit from the perspective of my daughter deciding where to audition and later when deciding from among her acceptances. Preparing to Apply - Information for H.S. Juniors and Seniors

And as onstage and others have recounted, my daughter's list also changed as we went through this process. School's at the top of her list came off entirely when she concluded they didn't have what she wanted, schools starting at the bottom of her list jumped tp the top as she learned more about them. It's a fluid process.

The discussion of the mathematics and statistical analysis by which to construct a model for comprising a list of schools has been fascinating. However, it must be partnered with an exhaustive investigation of programs to assure that the schools on your list are a good fit from the perspective of what the schools are looking for and to assure sufficient diversity, both of which are necessary to maximize the likelihood of an acceptance. It's this process, not the sheer number of schools to which you apply, that will most impact the outcome.

austinmtmom

Here's a link directly to MichaelNKat's great post about fit:
Preparing to Apply - Information for H.S. Juniors and Seniors

tutu17

There are programs out there for students to attend prior to auditioning. They are run by admission counselors from various MT/acting colleges and not only do they prepare the student with monologues, songs etc, that are appropriate for that student BUT they also help the student make realistic choices about which schools to apply to and even if they should apply early action/early decision. The counselors insight and experience can certainly affect the probability quotient. My D had only one choice for early decision and that is where she auditioned and that is where she was accepted.

alwaysamom

halflokum makes an excellent point here. There is a relatively small pool of kids who are able and willing to act professionally at this stage of their lives. For many professional shows, it is often very difficult to cast the very few roles in this category with age appropriate actors. These are often cast with older actors who can play young. The other issue that arises with teens who act professionally, or who may have the opportunity to do so, is that many do not want to get their Equity card at that stage. This is a valid concern and should be given considerable thought should the opportunity arise.