EmsDad

Let's apply a sort of "Freakonomics" approach to getting into an audition-based BFA program. How many programs should you audition for?

We will start by assuming entry into an audition-based program is a probabilistic process that can be represented as a series of independent events. In simple terms, this means that there is always a possibility that you will be admitted to a given program and a possibility that you won't be admitted and that no audition has any bearing on the outcome of any other auditions. This assumes that you do not audition for a program for which there is NO possibility that you will be admitted (although it turns out that doesn't really matter for this exercise) and that there is ALWAYS a probability that you won't be admitted, no matter how good you are.

Is this realistic? Well, it seems to be based on the anecdotal evidence at hand buried in various CC threads. Very few, if any, students seem to be accepted to EVERY program for which they audition. Meanwhile, some students are accepted to ZERO programs, and this also fits the assumption, i.e., there is no such thing as a 100 percent probability of acceptance for any given audition. I have seen examples of students who were accepted into many "top" programs but were rejected from programs with far less notoriety. Some people may get in EVERYWHERE, but it seems to be highly unlikely and has not been reported often in CC threads.

Let's also assume that most people audition for more than one program, and while the probability that you will be admitted to any given program may vary, there is an equivalent average probability of acceptance for each audition that can be used to realistically represent your odds of overall success. Here, "success" is defined as GETTING INTO AT LEAST ONE PROGRAM.

Use the assumptions stated, we can use some simple probability calculations to determine the "Point of Diminishing Return" and the "80/90/95 percent probability of acceptance points." I am going to define the Point of Diminishing Return as the point where the slope of the tangent line (the first derivative) begins to decrease, i.e., the point at which each audition adds a rapidly diminishing possibility of at least one acceptance (this turns out to be always be around a probability of success of 62-65 percent).

Using the formula P(Success) = (1-(1-P)^n) where P is the probability of success at any given audition and n is the number of auditions attempted:

P=35% PDR=3 auditions P(80%)=4 auditions P(90%)=6 auditions P(95%)=7 auditions

[Translation: if your chance of acceptance at any given audition is 35 percent, then the point of diminishing returns starts after 3 auditions, doing 4 auditions gives you an 80 percent probability of achieving at least one acceptance, doing 6 auditions increases your odds to 90 percent, and doing 7 auditions increases your odds to 95 percent]

Doing a few more cases:

P=25% PDR=4 auditions P(80%)=6 auditions P(90%)=8 auditions P(95%)=11 auditions

P=15% PDR=6 auditions P(80%)=10 auditions P(90%)=14 auditions P(95%)=18 auditions

P=10% PDR=10 auditions P(80%)=16 auditions P(90/95%)= more than 25 auditions

P=5% PDR=20 auditions P(80/90/95%)= more than 25 auditions

I used these relatively low probabilities of success (35% and less) based on looking through past CC acceptance threads, few students seemed to exceed a 35% audition acceptance rate and many were less. Of course, your mileage may vary.

The results seem to corroborate with much of the "Generally Accepted CC Wisdom" which is something like:

1. Don't load up your list with "lottery programs" (extremely competitive programs) because the odds are against you - look at the 5% and 10% lines. You would have to audition at 10-20 programs to reach the point of diminishing returns and more than 25 to reach a high degree of probability of success. Even for students who may feel that they are in the top tier in the country, it seems the odds of acceptance at the top programs may still be relatively low - there may 20 short, blond-haired girls who can all sing like Kristin Chenoweth and are all trying to get into CCM where there is only one slot of that type available ...

2. Spending time to determine where you would have a higher probability of acceptance (a "good fit") is well worth it - if you can get your odds up to 25% then you only need 6 auditions to achieve a probability of success of 80 percent. If you can increase your odds to 35 percent, then you only need 6-7 auditions to reach a 95 percent probability of success. Another way to state this to follow common "CC wisdom" is that: "doing more than 6-7 auditions won't dramatically increase your chances of success if you pick your schools wisely." Another corollary would be, "if you don't choose wisely and only do 6-7 auditions, then the chances that you may not get a single acceptance may be higher than you would prefer (or possibly anticipate - see the sad notes in the "Rejections" thread)."

3. Doing less than 6 auditions does not seem like a good idea unless you are really confident of your chances of success.

4. If you can't get a good feel for your fit in the process and you really, really want to get into an audition-based program, then you should consider doing 10-12 auditions across a broad-enough spectrum of programs in order to get your odds up (for example, 11 auditions are required to achieve a 95 percent chance of acceptance if your probability of success is 25%). Attending Unifieds would seem to be a logical path to follow in this case where you can get some additional auditions in that you might not be able accomplish through campus visits. Generalizing this idea, another corollary would be that "a student who is not able or capable of doing extensive analysis to figure out where they would fit (and therefore get their odds up) is best served probabilistically by doing basically as many auditions as possible" (sad but true if this analysis is correct).


Caveats:

a. I did the math in a hurry over lunch and I may have goofed something up (its been a long time since I took Probability). Please let me know if I made a mistake.

b. This is entirely based on anecdotal evidence. Caveat Emptor.

c. No particular path is recommended, this was just an exercise in looking at things from the "cold equations."

d. As with any application of probability, the BFA auditions process may not, in fact, entirely fit this model (or fit it at all).

e. I am not an expert in sociology, economics, or mathematics but this was fun to think about.

Gwen Fairfax

Well, D is doing 12 auditions, so she seems to have come to the same conclusion. But my eyes crossed reading this! Is there a Math Major forum? I wonder what they would say!

EmsDad

I guess I could have started with:

"Given the increasing competition in MT BFA program auditions, the numbers show 6-7 auditions is pretty much the absolute minimum, and 10-12 is a better idea unless you are really confident of your chances at most or all of the schools."

Of course pre-screening is a wonderful mechanism that would make this analysis much, much easier for people.

EmsDad

Looking at the "Acceptances Thread" from last year there were approximately 52 reports with only 18 that reported more than 2 acceptances to BFA MT audition programs (weeding out the non-audition and BFA-acting reports). Of the 18 that got into more than 2 programs, 14 got into 4 or more.

Assuming an average number of auditions to be 7 or 8, the average acceptance rate was 31-36%. If the average number of auditions was higher, the rate would go down (and this may be the case).

The Median acceptance rate, which I believe is a better indicator of what to expect, was 25-28%.

This data is from people who all got at least one acceptance. It would be logical to assume that these statistics are biased high, since, in general, those that did not receive a single acceptance did not report on the list. Hence, a realistic Median acceptance rate is probably less than 25% (and may be less than 20%).

Using the numbers in the OP, to achieve a 90-95 percent confidence for the Median of the population for acceptance into an audition-based MT BFA program, you may want to consider doing 10-12 auditions. If you can choose wisely, this number would, of course, decrease.

Of course, this is sparse data and is clearly biased in being soley from CC people who post.

santafedad

A sobering post. Too bad you can't run these calculations by applicant gender.

OneMTDad

"Median acceptance rate is probably less than 25% (and may be less than 20%)."

I believe the numbers you used are from both males and females so acceptance rate for females would be definitely be lower still.

EmsDad

It turns out that people tend indicate "S" or "D" in their acceptance names so a simple Excel trick can separate the data by gender (although this does not work in all cases). 30 of the 52 respondents from last year's acceptance thread can be readily identified as girls. The 8 unknowns turn out to be evenly distributed so I assumed 1/2 of them are girls. The resulting numbers aren't as bad as I would have thought:

28-31% acceptance rate (assuming 7-8 auditions)
25-29% median acceptance rate

Of course, the actual rate is probably lower due to the factors notes in my previous post (and posts on CC seem to indicate that more girls audition than boys for apparently fewer slots, although I have not data to back up this supposition).

Once again, I filtered out to get ONLY the audtion-based MT acceptances (no acting, no non-auditions).

Lulu63

Well my D auditioned for 9 programs if you include Muhlenberg and was accepted to 5 (which includes M-berg). One of them was for an acting studio and not for MT. I was extremely nervous throughout the entire process and she didn't know til May 2nd where she was really going to attend. I think if you can aud for about 10-11 programs is probably best. We did not do Chicago Unifieds so she could have fit a few more in without stressing out! Don't freak about the numbers. All you need is one acceptance.

halflokum

Oh my. I can't believe I actually read all of this nor that I'm responding. Sucked into the vortex.... :-) It's quite entertaining well done.

How about the fact that some kids are actually accepted immediately after they audition but they just don't know it yet? Yet they continue to audition at other programs which to help their odds but they don't need to. They are already done they just don't know it. What does that do to your calculations?

EmsDad

@halfokum - the fundamental assumption is that each audition is an independent event (and I think that is a pretty safe assumption unless schools practice collusion in selecting applicants, and I would have to assume that they do not). Therefore, an audtion is an audition and an acceptance is an acceptance, so the scenerio that you describe has no impact at all on the estimate of how many auditions that you should attempt to gain one acceptance.

A direct implication of the computations in the OP is that if you have a high probability of acceptance (on average for the auditions that you attempt) then you will increase your odds of gaining MORE THAN ONE ACCEPTANCE by increasing the number of auditions that you do, with an associated "Point of Diminishing Return" etc.

You can, in fact, compute how many auditions that you should attempt to gain any specific minimum number of acceptances with a high degree of confidence, but that would only plunge us deeper into the vortex (smile).

soozievt

EmsDad,
I am impressed with all your figuring and analysis, etc. and I think there is a lot of helpful and interesting information in this thread.

I do have some reservations, however, in getting caught up too much in the number of audition-based programs on a college list somewhat out of context for the following reasons....

~First, I just don't think the number of schools on the list is applicable to every applicant in terms of how many schools does it take to gain at least one BFA acceptance. This might be a useful exercise if all things being somewhat equal between candidates. If you have two HIGHLY competitive candidates, the analysis on number of schools might be similar for both candidates. But in reality, there are a number of applicants to BFA in MT programs who are not competitive and may have a very very low chance of getting into any BFA program, though they apply anyway (and may not realize they are not competitive artistically). Then, there are candidates who have some chance but are not that competitive artistically speaking but may get into a BFA depending on which ones they apply to. But in any case, the odds DIFFER greatly from candidate to candidate based on their artistic talent, qualifications, academics, etc. etc. In other words, there may be a candidate who applies to 15 BFAs and gets into NONE because he/she wasn't really competitive for a BFA in MT in the first place. And there could be a top talented MT candidate who could apply to just five schools and get into four of them because he/she truly has what it takes to be considered by the very selective programs.

~Secondly, let's say all candidates ARE equal in terms of talent (which of course is not true but just making a point), the analysis of how many schools he/she would have to apply to is dependent on WHICH schools are on the list and how the list is balanced in terms of odds both artistically and academically in relation to the candidate. (You did make some mention of this but it is an important point).....In other words, putting MT aside (as I don't want to name MT schools and open it up to debate on which are the most selective, etc.)....but let's say you have a top academic student (not a BFA applicant) and he/she applies to 8 schools and the schools are Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Columbia, Brown, Stanford, MIT, Penn and another tippy top student applies to 8 schools and their list is Harvard, Yale, Brown, MIT, Boston College, Brandeis, Boston University, University of Vermont. The odds of the number of acceptances are going to be different for both equally qualified kids as one kid's list has schools that all have extremely low acceptance rates and one has a more balanced list of "odds" schools.

~Thirdly, I am not sure how accurate it is using the "acceptance" thread on CC, though it does reveal some interesting data. But not only don't most MT applicants participate here or choose to post their results, it is even less likely someone who did not fare well might post their results. And regardless, we don't know how many schools each student applied to or how balanced their list was, or their own level of artistic and academic qualifications (not to mention the intangible factors).

I think the issue of "how many to apply to" is a very individualized issue because of one's qualifications, the appropriateness of the schools on the list in terms of fitting those qualifications (not everyone's MT college list should be the same because their qualifications are not the same), the balance of "odds" of the schools on the list (a range of selectivity), whether they only want a BFA or are interested in both BFAs and BAs, need financial aid, and so on. That said, I can't think that anyone (except some justified exceptions) who needs more than 12 BFAs on a list or more than 14 schools total, and that is a maximum (and I think most could have no more than 12 schools total.....and if going for a BFA, that may mean 10 BFAs and 2 non-audition BA sure bet schools). But one thing I have observed on CC on the MT Forum over the years is some people asking "what MT programs are good?,” or “where should I apply?,” or “which schools offer MT?" as if that was all there was to selecting a college list. There are some applicants that do not match their list to their own qualifications, nor balance their list in terms of odds. I've seen people post "how does my list look?" without any information as to their qualifications (and even then that would not be enough without seeing their artistic skill set). I don’t even understand how they would expect others to comment on the college list without knowing lots about the student. There is more to selecting a college list than merely, "these schools offer MT and I'm going to apply to 12 of these schools." I cannot emphasize enough the importance of the RIGHT list for each student in terms of qualifications, interests, fit, balance, etc. (I know you would not disagree with me here but just pointing this out to OTHERS who are reading the thread and not to you personally at all!).

Lastly, relating my own kid's MT college process, which doesn't really tell anything much as I don't think it applies to every candidate. In her case, she applied to 8 schools for MT, all BFA programs. She only wanted a BFA (someone who is equally interested in both BFAs and BAs would have a longer list). I will admit that I ALWAYS recommend having two non-audition BA safety schools on a list for someone primarily seeking a BFA in MT and will say that I don't recommend what my kid did in the sense that she had NO non-audition schools on her list. That said, while I was nervous about it, I did feel she was competitive to get into a BFA in MT program, but could not know which would take her, but felt she would get into at least one. Still, I don't recommend not having a non-audition back up safety school! But am admitting my own kid didn't have one. She applied to 8 BFAs in MT and was accepted to 5 BFAs in MT, priority waitlisted for a BFA in Acting (CMU where you are considered for both MT and Acting), accepted academically but deferred than rejected for the BFA to one, and rejected at one BFA. I just don't think you can draw conclusions from this as every student is different.

If you are a true contender for a BFA in MT, I don't think you need more than 8 BFAs on the list (then the two non-audition safeties), but certainly not more than 10. I don't feel that by adding more and more after 10-12, that it means the odds are improved. Either you are a contender for a BFA or not. Yes, very qualified kids get rejections in this process! But if you apply to 15 BFAs and don't get into any, you likely were not competitive for a BFA or your list is not well balanced in terms of academic and artistic odds or in keeping with your qualifications. So, the right list per candidate is what matters and the number of schools on the list is truly dependent on many factors and so I don't feel there is some "magic" number one needs to apply to in order to have a successful admissions outcome. For some kids, a well crafted college list appropriate to their qualifications that is well balanced, 8 schools will be enough and for some other kids, 12 schools will be enough. Very few kids need more than 12, and the reason for more than 12 is not so much to increase the odds but there are other factors that may call for it such as undecided between a BFA and a BA and so need about 6 of each. Or maybe there are financial reasons in chasing aid that may call for it. But I see NO reason for ANYONE to go over 14 and many have NO reason to go as high as 14. If you get into NO schools and have applied to 10-14 colleges, then the list was not the right list for you and the odds would not have improved by adding MORE schools but rather the RIGHT schools for you.

I'm just adding to the discussion which is an interesting one and my thoughts are not directed at EmsDad whatsoever.

EmsDad

@soozievt - I don't want to seem like I am arguing, but I want to emphasize that the math in the OP works no matter what the qualifications of the applicant. Your overall odds of success in securing at least one admission from a list of schools that you audition for can be summarized as a combination of your qualifications, the degree of difficulty of the schools on your list and the number of schools on your list. It is all apples to apples, the fundamental question is "for each audition, what are my realistic odds of success?" I believe that these are all fundamentally independent, probabilistic events.

If these are independent events with an associated probability, then adding one additional school DOES increase your odds of success, but it may not be "worth it" if you are already at a 90-95 percent confidence level with one less school (and of course it would depend on whether your odds at the school you are considering adding to your list are at, above or below the odds of the other schools on your list). But the odds increase with each attempt, no matter who you are and how long the odds are at the additional audition (unless the odds are ZERO - which is possible and so you are well served to ensure that you actually have some sort of chance).

The question you should ask is, "what is the effort to do one more audition vs. the probable increase in my overall chance of success?" If you can easily add a walk-in audition at Unifieds to a school that you are interested in and for which you are realistically well-qualified, it is likely to be worth your while (and as long as it doesn't stress you out and hurt your chances at other schools on your list). If you have to travel 1,000 miles to add one more audition to an already well-balanced list (with enough schools to make your degree of confidence acceptably high) at a school for which your odds are long, then it is definitely not "worth it."

It seems counter-intuitive but the math shows that if you are not able to choose wisely, but still have some possibility to be accepted, then you should audition for as many schools as possible since you are probably operating with a low overall chance of success. This is not an EFFICIENT or an ADVISABLE approach, but it is a probabilistically VALID approach nonetheless. This approach does assume that you have SOME chance of acceptance at each audition (which, as noted above, may NOT be true for all applicants).

It would not be a valid approach in any form to audition for schools for which an applicant has ZERO chance of admission. This is probably hard for people to swallow but it is a very important consideration to a well-thought-out approach to this complex process.

I agree that drawing definite conclusions around acceptance rates based on data in CC threads is not recommended, but I believe that the data is at least potentially indicative. I looked up the 2009 data and the numbers were almost identical to the 2011 numbers (29-33% average acceptance rate for the assumption that the average no. of auditions is 7-8), so there is at least some consistency.

I think that "thinking hard" about this process however you approach it is a good idea.

halflokum

Gah.... fighting the vortex.... must not reply.... inner geek is winning.... :-)

I'm sure I'm missing something obvious here, but if you are looking at CC data where people post the schools they applied to and were accepted at and thus drawing conclusions about acceptance rate, why doesn't the order of these acceptances and the timing matter as I was suggesting earlier?

If you audition at a school say EA and get in before any future auditions, you could choose to stop. Which would give you one result to the "how many schools". Or let's say you get into the same school EA but there are two other schools up next that you'd still like to try your odds at before deciding so you do those as well. But because of that EA acceptance, you then drop 8 other schools you would have applied to entirely off your list. In the end you only apply to 3 schools and you get into a minimum of 1 out of 3.

But if you have no early indication of acceptance (say you're deferred) from any of these schools, you might have auditioned at all 11 because you're living with uncertainty of acceptance at any. But you could end up getting into the original EA and one or two that you tried your luck with in the earlier example (and none of the other 8) whether you auditioned at 3 schools or 11. The differences is you could stop sooner and thus look like you had a higher acceptance rate. But really you didn't. You just hit the schools that took you first.

halflokum

also @emsdad. I agree qualitatively with everything that Soozievt says and my suspicion is so do you. I'm just trying to poke at the math. I'm pretty sure there is no real math for this endeavor but it is a fun exercise to try to make one.

soozievt

Halflokum, I have had students get into a BFA in Early Decision and thus canceled all their other auditions. I have had some students get into a favored school in the fall and cancel SOME of their auditions after that. That wasn't the case with my own kid but you are right, that happens. Also, I'm unclear if someone is using the Acceptance threads, how they can tell how many schools those on the list applied to as the posters just add their acceptances to the list.

Anyway, it is an interesting discussion. I just don't think it is so much a black and white numbers game as it involves a myriad of factors and the odds are not just based on how many schools you apply to (in my opinion, based on my observations).

Emsdad, it surely isn't an argument, no worries, as it is just sharing various perspectives and considerations in an interesting manner.