perazziman

@fredsfam

I believe it is the top 1/2 of one percent of high school graduates in a state that qualify for semifinalist designation. It could not be the top 1 percent, since 211 is 99 percentile nationally and 211 is well above the 99 percentile fo TX.

clapuma

@fredsfam:

No, it is not the top 1% in each state. The 16K semi-finalists are about 1% of eligible testtakers, but those 16K students are spread among the states based on the population of HS graduates in each state.

Due to differences in the ratio of PSAT test-takers to HS graduates in a given state the percentage of test-takers who make semi-finalist for one state or another can vary substantially - in 2009 it ranged anywhere from 0.59% (in Maine) to 3.4% (in Utah). (TX was .77%). But those percentages don't tell you the cutoff because that depends on the overall performance of the students who took the test in the state.

Also, you can’t just average the state percentiles on each section to compute a percentile at the selection index level. Students are typically stronger in one section of the test or the other. The top 1 percent of students for math are a very different mix of students than the top 1 percent for critical reading. It is the rarer student who can get high scores on all three sections.

You can see this by looking at the national-level information for the 2010 test. The 99th percentile cutoffs for 2010 at the section levels were as follows: CR (74), M (77) and W (72). If you add those together you get a selection index of 223. But that is MUCH higher than the cutoff for the 99th percentile at the selection index level, which in 2010 was only 213. See 2010 Understanding Psat Nmsqt Scores

myuusmeow

I am so ridiculously frustrated. 74/70/71 = 215 in California.

clapuma

myuusmeow: 215 is an amazing score, well into the 99th percentile nationally. It likely would have qualified you for semi-finalist in all but about 10 states this year. Although CA has a higher cutoff than most others (due to the flukey way the NMSC allocates the semi-finalist designation), that doesn’t take away from your accomplishments and abilities. Keep up the good work and you’ll have your pick of college and scholarship opportunities.

Descartesz

Moderator:

Would it be possible to sticky

1) The thread in which the most recent list of state cut-offs are compiled

2) A thread or post in which the whole commended, NMSF, NMF, Scholar timeline and migration are discussed.

3) An explanation of how NMSF slots are allocated (as clapuma artfully explains above).

4) And possibly the thread in which major NM Scholarships (sponsored by schools) is being maintained.

?

This would, I think, help curtail the queries and responses on these issues that arise repeatedly in this forum.

Thanks.

Bappy1

Does anyone know the meaning of '99+' percentile used by NMSC? I understand 99th percentile but haven't seen an exact explanation of the '+'. Is that 99.5, 99.9 or something else? Doesn't really matter but I am curious.

Descartesz

99+ indicates a score in the >= 99.5 percentile. In other words closer to 100th% (but of course, not at 100th% as there are multiple ceiling scores achieved) than to 99th%

RobD

So for you number crunching types, College Board now has the state level PSAT reports out now at: College-Bound Juniors & Sophomores 2011 - PSAT/NMSQT

Of special interest to those looking for intel on potential NMSF cutoffs for the current class of juniors is the following:

Junior average scores for 2011 (with comparison to 2010 data):
Critical Reading: 47.6 (0.3 increase)
Math: 48.3 (0.6 decrease)
Writing Skills: 45.6 (0.2 increase)

squidge

This is great info. Quick question - the National report shows percentiles for the entire selection index - in other words, what % is your total score nationally - but it looks like the only info you can get for your state is the % for each area? Doesn't look like state by state percentiles for the selection index/total score is published anywhere?

Descartesz

Your surmise is correct - those numbers are not made public.

silencefell

alright so i was attempting to analyze the information found in @RobD's link to answer my own question, but I'm still pretty lost.
I got a 74/70/67 (211) on the psat and i'm from pennsylvania. last year's cutoff was 215, and from what i somehow calculated was that scores went down by .2%? I'm pretty positive that my math is off, but if anyone's willing to assist...? :]

clapuma

@silencefell:

Here’s my trend analysis for Pennsylvania. I’ve include the average # of PA students in the top 2 scoring ranges (75-80 and 70-74) for the three sections because its cutoff has been lower than some of the top states. PA results are compared to the 99% selection index cutoff nationally.

Yr.. avg # in top 2 ranges (chg)..PA cutoff (chg)..99% cutoff natl [chg]

2007..1761..213..212
2008..1960 (+11.3%)..214 (+1)..212 [0]
2009.. 2205 (+12.5%)..216 (+2)..212 [0]
2010..1833 (-16.87%)..215 (-1)..214 [+2]
2011..1765 (-3.67%)..TBD (TBD)..211 [-3]

As you can see, PA has not followed the national trend that well as of late. Its cutoff went up in 2008 and 2009 even though the national 99% cutoff was unchanged. And in 2010, PA’s cutoff went down, even though the national 99% cutoff jumped +2.

While the average # of PA students in the top ranges is down for 2011 (similar to the national trend), it is not down by much. So it may be difficult for the PA cutoff to drop by the 4 points you need to qualify for NMSF. However, there is one factor that might give you some hope. For some reason, the number of test takers in PA dropped by surprising 5% in 2011. That anomaly could cause the PA cutoff to drop by more than might otherwise be predicted.

In any event, 211 is a great score and should be at least commended. Congratulations!

perazziman

@clapuma: Do you know if high schools release a stundent's PSAT rank at the school? In other words, can and do GCs tell you how many students did better than you on the PSAT at a given school?

I know CB provide a school percentile rank with the SAT, but for some reason, not for the PSAT.

clapuma

@perazziman: I've never heard of info like that being released, but it would be interesting. Perhaps others know.

Loncria

To Clapuma and other experts: Considering California's 221 cutoff last year, can I expect to advance with a 221 this year? It seems like the cutoff will drop, but is there any likelihood that it rises?