cougarmom3

Has anyone attempted to forecast the Georgia cut off. I believe 2010 was 214 and 2011 was 2018. DS scored 214 - Curious about the possibility that it goes down that much.

wemel

There was a huge drop in test takers this past year and it looks to me that the averages at the top 2 levels of each category are right about the levels of the 214 year. I know nothing about the graduation rates for GA. You can call the NM office and they can give you the number of NMSF for each year. I would ask for the last 4-5 years and see if the number stays relatively constant. If they have, I can definately see the number dropping to at least 215. It will be a nail-biter.

perazziman

Lisam128, my guess is, Florida cut off drops to 212, perhaps 210, unless there was a huge drop in the total numbers of high school students graduating from Florida next year.

Lisam128

Perazziman, thanks. I hope your right! It would make the application process much easier! I'm curious, did you look at the FL numbers? The highest percentages 700-800 did seem to go down from last year to this. In comparison to 2009, the writing is definitely stronger this year. I assume they take all three subtexts into the calculation.

Lisam128

Thought i should add......Total test takers in fl 2009-65776, 2010-66939, 2011-66958.

Texasmomm

Anyone have a guess on Texas cutoff this year? Went from 215 to 219 and we are hoping for a return to 215 this year

wemel

It looks as though the TX scores have gone down to the levels of when the cutoff was 215, even though more students took the test. Of course it depends on how many graduating seniors there are relative to a couple of years ago. Do you know how many NMSF there were in TX for the last 2-3 years? Everything remaining constant, I think it will go down 2-3 points at least.

justlovelife

A lot of really impressive scores! I got a 221 in MA which is apparently equivalent to a 223 nationally last year? That happened to be the MA cutoff last year... any guesses on the MA semifinalist cutoff this year?

GiveMeReason

Yeah I am from Florida, and I got a 216, which, historically, would be pretty safe from the cut off. Hopefully, since I am the 99% at my school (only one friend got a higher score than me)... I do make the cut. But Florida just had a small spike to 214. Under my knowledge. it has never been that high (big bro got it with a 213). Should I worry?

perazziman

I do not think that the cut off will drop much, perhaps a point or two in MA.

clapuma

A few thoughts:

TX – I’ve studied TX closely. The 4 point jump in 2010 is mostly explained by the fact that the # of TX test takers jumped by 20K (more than 10%). As with many states this year, I see downward pressure on the TX scores. But, as wemel mentioned, the # of TX test takers went up again (though only by 1500 or so). I think a drop of 2-3 points for TX is most likely (though 4 is not out of the question).

MA – I’m with perazziman. The state-level numbers suggest MA will go down. The question is by how much. 1 or 2 is most likely. For justlovelife’s sake, I hope it’s 2. I’d put the odds at 60%.

FL – 216 is pretty much a lock for FL in my view. There is some downward pressure, not enough for me to think it will go back to the 2009 level. Down 2 seems reasonable.

GA – the drop in # of GA test takers is a good sign. Otherwise I wouldn’t expect a 4 point drop. 3 seems more reasonable.

If I have time, I can post the #s that support the above analysis.

saidu10

How about Wisconsin?

wemel

WI - If everything else remains constant, my guess is that WI may go down 1 point. Fewer test takers and much lower scores in the top 2 ranges.

jroback

Aggie 84: don't want to hijack thread, but can you elaborate on TAMU comments. Although the NMF package on their website is good, by my calculations it would still leave about $12K/year unfunded for an out of state student -- so its not a full-ride like other schools. You can PM me if you'd like. Thx.

Aggie84

Others might want to correct me, but this was mainly in the context of comparison to UT, which doesn't appear to do much of anything for NMF. Your are correct that on paper it doesn't amount to a full ride. However, we met with admissions counselor that advised son to complete all three essays and indicate that he was interested in applying for scholarships. This opens the door to additional scholarships from the university and at departmental level. Also encouraged to apply as early as possible (admissions open in August) since there is a rolling admissions calendar. He keeps in touch with NMF students on a regular basis and indicated that most ended up being almost fully paid for and in some cases getting refunds. I encourage you to call admissions folks, indicate your child is potential NMF and to speak to the counselor that handles this program. Of course, this could all change at a moments notice and probably depends on individual cases. They were very accomodating about setting up a personal visit as well. Good lucK!

On a housing note--no preference provided to freshman at either UT or A&M. Apply early and put in the housing deposit if this is an issue, or want a specific style of dorm.