A virtual crap shoot trying to chance you. As noted, your math, for a traditional candidate, is mediocre. Being from a highly competitive state could well impact your possibilities. Conversely, having a successfully commissioned sibling and USNA grad could well impact your possibilities. Another positive indicator is your CVW, altho I'd be cautious in placing too much weight on that. 50-50. Wish I could be more encouraging. The best news is you're still in the game.
If you're a person of genuine faith, pray. God's grace is boundless.
Keep us posted.