So coming back to your core question, ED is your best shot and based on numbers alone your shot maybe below the average for ED applicants -- not impossible just below the average even in a holistic process. NJ is a competitive state for NU (particularly if you coming from a suburban public school) and your stadardized test score is on the low side if you are an unhooked applicant. Focus on getting your SAT (M and CR) or ACT closer to 1480/33 and really show demonstrated interest in the school when you write your essay. Also, try to keep track of how many kids are applying ED from your school and if any of them are hooked. If there are a couple of legacy kids with similar statistics or unhooked kids applying ED with substantially better statistics, consider that in your decison on whether to use your ED application for NU. While there is randomness in the "holistic" process, a fair amount of of this is driven by your numbers and precisely who you are competing against from your local community. Also, Naviance does allow you to separate the statistics for ED applicants. It is sometimes quite tellling, as you can see where the different lines are drawn for ED v RD. For example at Ds school kids with an ACT of 32 or 33 and good grades were regularly admitted ED at Duke but rejected 100% of the time RD. (Duke was particularly transparent). Good luck. Follow your heart but use your brain in this process. It's no different than anything else in life.