Northstarmom

"What's shaping up is not comparable to '92, the last time a Democrat won the White House. "It's much more serious and devastating to Republicans," says Stan Greenberg, who was Bill Clinton's pollster. Democrats lost seats in '92; Clinton had no coattails. Obama may enter the White House with close to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a doubling of the Democratic margin in the House. This is a watershed election. Typically, every four years, somebody wins, somebody loses, and life goes on. But Obama represents generational change that has huge political repercussions. He wins 63 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29. For the Republicans, "It's not just a lost election, it's a lost generation," says Greenberg."

'Wal-Mart Women' Won't Save McCain?Or the GOP | Newsweek Voices - Eleanor Clift | Newsweek.com

corranged

What's interesting is that this is always sort of true. If you look at the data, you'll see that people's partisanship throughout their lives is hugely influenced by the candidate who wins in the election when they cast their first votes. I thought that was pretty cool and unexpected.

momof2inca

In my first election, Reagan won. I voted for him. But I voted Democratic every election after that. So it doesn't hold true for me, corranged, (or for my H who also voted R at first). But it's an interesting data point, and I hadn't thought of partisanship as being influenced by the first votes.

sueinphilly

still incubating eggs, chickens not hatched..... yet....

corranged

Agreed, Sueinphilly!!

Momof2, if you look at those who "came of age" during the Reagan administration (I don't have the birth year range in my head), you'll see that they are actually the most Republican sector of the US population if you break it down by age. It's wonderfully strange.

littlegreenmom

I am one of those that came of age with the first Reagan election. I had been leaning Democratic, but chose Reagan and have been a conservative voter ever since.

While I have voted for other parties, most notably for a member of Congress in my district, I tend to vote Republican.

Never underestimate the power of the losing party digging in their heels and waiting it out. I sure have seen it with Democrats after 2000 and 2004. I think these voters will just be even more riled up, ready to vote for their party in the House and Senate elections when the time comes.

I don't think it will be a lost generation for them. They may not be led by who they wanted to have as President, but that doesn't mean they will go hide in a cave and be lost as a generation.

Northstarmom

To me, the "lost generation" refers to the fact that there's a big gap between what the GOP party believe are issues important enough to sway a vote and issues that younger voters believe are that important.

Polls have indicated that, for instance, younger voters who are Christian are less likely to have issues like abortion and gay marriage determine their votes than are older voters who are Christian.

It's also possible that younger voters -- who tend to be more highly educated than are older voters -- may be less likely to be scared by talk connects the Democratic party to socialism, which isn't as likely to scare them as it may scare older voters who think socialism = communism, something that was frightening when many of us were young, but isn't particularly frightening to people who grew up after the USSR split apart.

mapesy

Thanks for the article, Northstarmom. Peggy Noonan has a piece in the WSJ today in which she articulates the same point. (Noonan's opinions resonate with me because she holds the Republicans to the same high standards that she hold the Democrats.)

Noonan says:

munchkin

^I think both parties have valuable ideas and capable leaders. After 8 years of one party, it's good to have a change.

I had always been a liberal and vote Democrat. I have to say, thanks to some very articulate Republican posters here, I am starting to see that some Republican ideas have merit.

momof2inca

Well, I've always felt a little out of step with my contemporaries. I imagine the birth year range of the Reagan Revolution to be 1963 (they would have been able to vote, like me, at 18 in 1981 for Reagan's first term) to 1967 (they would have voted for Reagan's 2nd term at 18) to 1971 (they would not have been able to vote for Reagan but would have come of age during his years in office).

Coincidentally, these are the years that me and my three siblings were born. Of the four of us, two are strong Democrats, one is a strong Republican and one is what I would call a weak Republican who probably votes Democratic when his union makes a great case for it (he's a waiter in Vegas). So we split 2 for 2. And, that makes a lot of sense because we were raised in a home where Mom is a lifelong Independent who always votes Dem., and Dad is a lifelong Republican who always votes R. (We didn't talk politics much in our family... too many arguments ensued. ).

dallice

To get back their edge, Republicans will have to do something about the disconnect between how they see the world and how everyone else does.

Democracy Corps The Republican Disconnect

They still haven't accepted that what they're doing isn't working. They think they just need to do more of it.

corranged

When I was reading your post, Momof2, I was imagining the discussions your family must have!

I think we're going to see a fundamental change in the Republican party in the next couple of election cycles. My sense (which I have no proof for, by the way) is that we've been in a religious revival in America, which happens every so often. You can think of it as a Great Awakening perhaps. I also believe that we're nearing the tail end of this religious revival. As far right Christian groups lose members, particularly younger members, and power and/or drive, the Republican party will be able to stop catering to their vote. Besides traditionalism on social issues, there's really no reason why that group is so aligned with the Republican party. I think (and hope) that we're going to see a more libertarian Republican party, dependent of course on what happens with the economy in the upcoming years.

pugmadkate

I watched a bit of the Republican convention. There was a long shot of the crowd when I suddenly thought, "That American does not exist anymore." Bluntly put, an audience that consisted of primarily older, white people is only going to hold onto the power for so much longer. I live in a county that is already not white-majority. White have the lowest birthrates. The population shift is already underway, the power shift will be not far behind it.

When people are afraid, if they reject flight then fight it is. How else to explain the fact that the more McCain/Palin do exactly what the majority of Republicans want them to do, the worse McCain/Palin do in the polls? I've sat with Republican friends and explained what I know about Ayers or Rev. Wright, which is a lot and typically more than they do, yet they insist I just must not "know a lot" about it or I would be as afraid as they are.

They just simply do not understand my lack of fear and there is no convincing them that is has nothing to do with the mainstream media, lack of information or Obama's charisma.

mini

Whigs.....

Northstarmom

"I watched a bit of the Republican convention. There was a long shot of the crowd when I suddenly thought, "That American does not exist anymore." Bluntly put, an audience that consisted of primarily older, white people is only going to hold onto the power for so much longer. "

True. The younger generation is far more racially and ethnically and probably spiritually diverse than are older generations. The younger generation as a whole also is far more comfortable being in groups reflecting various kinds of diversity -- including in terms of race and sexual orientation -- than are older generations.

In addition to not being attracted to much of the GOP's politics, the younger generation is likely to be put off by the way the GOP looks. What looks comfortable and safe to older GOP members -- such as the type of people who were at the GOP convention -- would be unattractive to young potential members. The GOP looks like a party for their grandparents.