crescent22

Man, the President is spending a lot of time trying to prop up Corzine. He's even making statements like Corzine is critical to me achieving my agenda as President. Nothing wrong with how he chooses to spend his time or political capital.

However, isn't it clear Corzine is going to lose? We've seen this before - Daggett is not going to get 10-11% of the vote as the polls say. Just like with Nader, he will get far less and most of the difference will vote with Christie. The anti-incumbent wave will add a couple point more headwind to Corzine on Tuesday. Obama's response to Deeds' failing candidacy in Virginia has been to stand as far as possible on the other side of the room. He's going to wish he did the same with Corzine.

lockn

Why are you so sure Dagget voters will go for Christie, or vote at all?
This poll says that Dagget has 17% of independants, 10% of Republicans, and 8% of Democrats:
SurveyUSA Election Poll #15954
Other pollsters also show split numbers.

IMO this is a complete toss-up and depends entirely on turnout in an election where nobody is particularly excited about either candidate. This is why Obama is campaigning - he isn't going to win any Christie voters over.

tom1944

Christie has run a very poor race. Corzine was a very weak candidate and it is a toss up. Daggett is taking votes from both. The common wisdom that Daggett hurts Christie but I am not sure. I know of at least 10 voters for Daggett that would never vote for Christie. Without Obama Corzine would be behind by at least 7 points.

The NJ radio station is a non- stop unpaid Christie ad.

crescent22

> Why are you so sure Dagget voters will go for Christie, or vote at all?
This poll says that Dagget has 17% of independants, 10% of Republicans, and 8% of Democrats:

I assume a strong anti-incumbent element of Daggett's poll support along with a greater mix of conservatives than liberals. Daggett's main stand of reducing property taxes is obviously more likely to attract Republican votes than Democrat.

You can try to minimize the effect but Daggett is net taking votes from Christie and won't have 10% on Tuesday night.

tom1944

Actually Daggett's property tax plan is to increase the sales tax by applying it to services. The republican and anti tax independents do not like this plan. They are convinced that waste cutting will solve everything. There are plenty of democratic leaning independents that would never vote R but are unhappy with Corzine so Daggett gives them a place to go.

barbara960

Bill Clinton called me today on Corzine's behalf, and I heard from President O yesterday. OK, they were robocalls. I think Corzine will win in a close one.The unions and the cities will come out and vote for him. Christie never explained any of his plans to lower taxes, while improving everything else. His campaign was poor.
Poll: Corzine by 9 - The Scorecard - POLITICO.com

crescent22

tom, i'm not sure the electorate is as smart as you are. I think there are enough people who would tell the pollers they are going with daggett but when they come to their senses will vote for christie because they would rather have him than corzine, and I think that is reflecting in the polls of the last week.

I don't know if I am right or not - we'll find out in 48 hrs.

Kei-o-lei

Latest Rasmussen poll:

"Republican Chris Christie continues to hold a three-point advantage over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey's down-to-the-wire race for governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state, conducted Thursday night, shows Christie with 46% of the vote and Corzine with 43%. Those numbers are unchanged from earlier in the week and little changed from polling conducted the week before.

Corzine does better among voters who might not make it to the polls. That's one reason President Obama, former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic Party luminaries are spending time in the Garden State. The more of these uncommitted voters that the Democratic Party and its allies can get to the polls, the better the prospects for Corzine."

Kei

barbara960

They're pretty good at getting voters to the polls.

tom1944

Corzine hopes to have many mail in ballots.

bulletandpima

The question is which more will there be, snowbirds or military. Military is not one he will want. I am actually not sure about snowbirds, even though they are usually a democrat vote, because with SS getting no increase, fear of the health care issue (medicare) and property taxes always increasing while they don't use them, it might not bode well for him.

mam1959

I think Christie is a mediocre candidate.

This of course speaks volumes about Corzine's tax and spend policies. If he loses (and the latest polls show worse than a 3 point negative margin), it will simply be a tax revolt.

tom1944

pima- the mail in ballots are not for the military or snowbirds. The D's have distibuted them to likely D voters at events and other venues and are getting them mailed in. No need to worry about voters showing up at the polls if they mailed in a ballot.

mam1959- there is a disconnect on the policy issues since the anger is about property taxes and Corzine has allocated more money to programs that are related to property tax relief than any governor ever.

Christie will have to cut these programs, no matter what he says, to cut the income tax. He will blame property tax increases on the towns. The battle will be between teachers and their local towns. Christie has already said he will protect the police- no cuts at all. The teachers union is running strong against Christie and he says they are lying about his positions. If you read his statements carefully it is obvious he needs to get the money from the teachers- no where else to get enough.

crescent22

Yeah, baby, you heard it here first. Daggett gets nowhere near 10%.

Candidate Votes %
Christie 878,955 50%
Corzine 775,526 44%
Daggett 95,766 5%
Others 14,970 1%
72% reporting

DocT

I guess the Republican party is done for!