bulletandpima

The big answer will be if he does not win 50% then it is a win by default due to the 3 way race. NJ is the bluest of all of the states on the east coast. They are not like NY where Manhattan carries them compared to rural NY. NJ is much smaller and less diverse.

If I was Obama I would pray that Corzine loses for my own political reason. Corzine wins and taxes increase at the rate they are, 12 will be hard to win. Add this with VA and McDonnell winning No VA, Fairfax, and if he does well, that means he could have an anti-Corzine vote in NJ and a pro-McDonnell in VA, and that will hurt him for re-election.

He needs to keep NJ in the blue column, only way to do so is to have Christi win. Corzine will not be able to overcome his neg numbers. He needs to worry that if McDonnell does a good job and has strong approval he may lose VA.

poetsheart

What hurt Deeds is a whole laundry list of things: Mudslinging isn't new to politics, unfortunately, but it often works quite well. And if all you've got is a single bullet in your gun, and it doesn't hit its target, you're toast. The only bullet Deeds had was the allegation of sexism stemming from that 30 yr. old thesis, written out of "youthful ignorance" (gee, I wonder why the same people who immediately disregarded what he wrote in that paper, were so adamant to pillory Michele Obama---who wasn't even running for office---over her long ago college thesis) while attending Pat Robertson's Regent University. McDonald soon convinced the electorate that he has since entered the age of enlightenment, and he has some impressive allies--high profile female AfAms among them. McDonald has struck all the right chords. He's painted Deeds as a "tax and spend" liberal (not original, but "if it ain't broke, yada, yada...), and Deeds has done nothing to counter that. In fact, the McDonald ad using footage of Deeds during an ambush airport press interview--where he first looks like a deer in the headlights, and then gets surly when he's asked about whether he'll raise taxes for transportation, even though he's vowed he won't raise taxes---was like, "game, set, match!" Brilliant! The fact that Virginia has evermore pressing transportation issues, and no one's yet figured out a way to address them without raising taxes, is neither here nor there. The electorate has been stubbornly opposed to higher taxes of any sort for roads and transportation, and McDonald used that footage to skewer Deeds right through the heart. He'll just worry about how he'll tackle the same intractable issue later, when he's Governor...

Deeds' own image is nothing short of terrible. He's let his opponent define him almost entirely. Most of the footage of Deeds shows an awkward, strident man with his head ducked forward (a defensive posture adopted by people who have spent a lifetime being cowed and harangued), an angry individual who has an ax to grind. Such footage says, "It's because of guys like him (meaning McDonald) that my life has been so crappy. Meanwhile, Deeds hasn't run an ad of himself appearing competent and confident, looking into the camera and selling himself as the best candidate for the job.

Most voters contrasting the two candidates (unless they're stubbornly partisan---which a large portion of voters aren't), would quickly assess that McDonald the is the better candidate. Plus, what a lovely family he has, such beautiful, professional, competent, and loyal daughters (yep, you're right pima---that daughter in the military, who seems to negate all Deeds' allegations about women, is impressive). Where's Deeds' family? Where, indeed does Deeds speak up for himself, rather than against his opponent. He's thin gruel, and the Democrats know it---certainly Obama knows it, which is probably why it took so long for him to make that one campaign visit on Deeds' behalf. But, more important, the voters know what a dog of a candidate Deeds is, and what a winner McDonald appears to be. And everyone loves a winner, after all.

I wouldn't take the Governor's race as any sort of portent on how NoVa will go in 2012. The Congressional and Senatorial races will be a whole other matter. Of course, party loyalist such as yourself will probably vote for the Republican no matter who's running, but for Va. Independents, the candidate him or herself will make all the difference in the world---unless poles shift drastically, and a critical majority become angered by the Democratic Congress. And yes, I agree it could happen.

xiggi

We believed that "God himself could come down to earth and campaign" as Poetsheart wrote. Well, PH did NOT write those words as I quote, but the proximity of the two posts was simply irresistible.

Indeed, we believed that change would come, and we believed that a person with such charisma, such integrity, and such intellect would be ... different. We also believed that because of his youth and inexperience, he would not have tons of "baggage" to carry, and that he could distance himself from the people who propelled him in the highest seat of power, and find the courage to enlist people with the capacity to expose the inner weakness of horrible Congress.

Change you can believe in? Yep, it will come ... when Obama borrows a page from President Clinton in 1994. "The people have listened and so have I, and I am implementing drastic changes in answer to our nation's voters." Unfortunately, there is a huge chance that most of the damages will be irreversible.

UCBChemEGrad

Pelosi, Waxman and Boxer would be great starts.

tom1944

The story Pima quotes is true the D's did robocall for Daggett. I voted for Daggett for a many reasons first among them was the hope that Daggett could get 20% and pave the way for a possible third party going forward. Daggett's spot on the ballot will insure that will not happen- it was very difficult to find him. He was on a line with two other candidates. I almost thought I was going to have to write him in that was how difficult it was to find his name. Corzine needs to pull huge numbers in the areas Lake Washington mentioned. Supposedly they attempted to get huge numbers using mail in ballots from these areas. The complaints about fraud have already started.

LogicWarrior

who are idiots if they believed that "hope and change" meant anything but a shift towards liberal policies.

lockn

NJ went for Obama by 16%... if he was so unpopular that NJ was at risk, he would already be losing essential swing states. VA, that is something for him to be concerned about.

catahoula

"a shift toward liberal policies" doesn't really do the last ten or so months justice, LW.

Speaking of "idiots", though, it's hard to tell who'll end up being the bigger ones - the independents needed by the Democratic party in '10 or the party leadership, which in the face of declining numbers for Obama and themselves, continues pushing a seriously unpopular agenda.

While it's entertaining to watch Reid play hide the pea with his version of Obamacare, while Pelosi says with a straight face that she has the votes for the public option, all while reading that Democratic insiders are admitting it's not going to get done this year, the only rational explanation is that these people have a death wish.

No doubt they're hoping those useful "idiot" independents have never heard the old saw... "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice,...

lockn

Lol, an amazing showing by Deeds, he almost made it to 8 PM before the race was called for McDonnell.

... there's a list.

There are really only two people who might stop this bill from becoming law, and they are both in the Senate. If you are from Connecticut or Nebraska, write a letter (or better yet, start a PAC).

catahoula

Given the multiple iterations of Obamacare, there have probably been just as many lists, lockn.

As the discussion grinds closer to next November (and Boxer cranks up the Cap & Trade carnival), there will probably be new lists generated with every set of poll numbers.

lockn

Looks like Christie won.

Craziness in New York... with 52% reporting, Bloomberg is only ahead by 1 point.

LogicWarrior

Good point. "crawl toward some semblance of not being conservative" would be more accurate.

xiggi

LW, sorry but I have to ask: Do you go to school or do you plan start attending one in the next future?

LogicWarrior

very funny. don't you have a tea party to be at?

bulletandpima

If Bloomberg didn't have the funds and did not carry Staten Island he would not have won.

I wonder if Corzine wishes he didn't blow his millions...bad investment for him.

The new question begs to be asked for those politicians, do you still believe that blowing millions will guarantee a win? The other point to realize is that "star power" doesn't give you an edge. Obama stomped alot in NJ and he still lost. Deeds last commercial that was running non-stop was Obama and it didn't help.

If you take the statistics apart, Obama should still be safe in 12, since the demographics showed that without him on the ticket the true "voters" were the only ones that showed up. If the republicans are smart they will start placing Rubio and Canter out there as the face of the republicans. That will be the best for them.

Also, I might be wrong, but I do see a grass roots campaign for 3rd party candidates during 10, basically as a wake up call we are tired of the same old, same old in DC. Get to work or both parties can be gone.