The GOP plan was evaluated by the CBO.
Here is the report.
Here is a quote from page 3:
"By 2019, CBO and JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people without health insurance would be reduced by about 3 million relative to current law, leaving about 52 million nonelderly residents uninsured. The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage in 2019 would be about 83 percent, roughly in line with the current share. CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the amendment’s insurance coverage provisions would increase deficits by $8 billion over the 2010–2019 period."
JCT is Joint Committee on Taxation.
From page 7: "All told, the amendment would reduce the federal deficit by $18 billion in 2019, CBO and JCT estimate."
As a summary, on the front page: "According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting the amendment would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $68 billion over the 2010–2019 period. That estimate reflects a projected net cost of $8 billion over 10 years for the provisions directly related to insurance coverage; that net cost reflects a gross cost of $61 billion that is partly offset by about $52 billion in additional revenues associated with the coverage provisions. Over the same period, the other provisions of the amendment would reduce direct spending by $49 billion and increase tax revenues by $27 billion."
The good news is on the bottom of page 4 on to page 5: "In the market for individually purchased insurance, which represents a little more than 5 percent of total private premiums, the amendment would lower average insurance premiums in 2016 by an estimated 5 percent to 8 percent compared with amounts under current law. And in the large group market, which represents nearly 80 percent of total private premiums, the amendment would lower average insurance premiums in 2016 by zero to 3 percent compared with amounts under current law, according to CBO’s estimates."
Note: to repeat, 80% would see a zero to 3% reduction.
Note also that the GOP plan does not require coverage if you have a pre-existing condition and does not prevent cancellation - though insurers would be required to give notice first. This is in the plan, not in the CBO analysis of cost.
So the net is:
1. The GOP plan barely if at all reduces the number of uninsured, when you consider the rate of population growth, etc.
2. The number of elderly uninsured would remain the same.
3. The budget effect is substantially less than either Democratic plan. (Note for the weird purists: the biggest part is additional revenue so I guess you shouldn't count that so the real cost is actually higher and the real deficit reduction is then negligible.)
And so there you are. The great ideas. This is the fruit of all that labor.
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