So...is the economy getting better?

dstark · 03-08-2012, 06:59 PM

My wife is probably going to lose her job at the end of the month. She works for a real estate developer. My gig may end this year. I was originally hoping it would go for 3 more years, but I am getting tired.

Yet...household debt as a percentage of income is falling and is at 8 year lows.

Net worth of households is down 13% from the 2007 high...but that is a lot better than it was.

I think people are spending more and are tired of feeling bad.

My daughter got a job in the field she wanted which is good.

So...besides the fact that I think nobody in real life knows who Dstark is.. so I can write the above...

How are you seeing the economy?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobles...HRlc3QD;_ylv=3

moonchild · 03-08-2012, 07:12 PM

I see it as staying fairly stagnant for many more years. I believe there is still a lot of potential in the residential real estate market for prices to fall. Even though job numbers are picking up a bit, we have too many unemployed- far more than the statistics report, imo. Many who have lost their jobs don't have the kind of skills needed in our tech society to get a job that pays enough to support a family.
Energy prices are going up. How does anyone afford to drive with gas prices close to $5 a gallon? Prices for food are high and going higher. Some people may be spending more but are they borrowing more in order to do it?
Until we stop shipping most of our manufacturing jobs and other services overseas, I don't see how we can get our economy going again.

DocT · 03-08-2012, 07:19 PM

"My wife is probably going to lose her job at the end of the month. She works for a real estate developer. My gig may end this year. I was originally hoping it would go for 3 more years, but I am getting tired. "

I thought you owned your own financial firm. Perhaps you can relax with Don, he seems like a relaxing type fellow.

dstark · 03-08-2012, 07:21 PM

Who is Don?

Well...moonchild...I hope things get a little better...

Oh Luskin....

Your hero...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12...tisan-hackery/

So Doct..is the economy getting better?

DocT · 03-08-2012, 07:33 PM

I really don't know. I haven't been affected by the economy even when it was certainly worse 3 years ago. Consumer sentiment numbers have been improving. The political landscape and polls indicate that the economy is getting better.

limabeans · 03-08-2012, 07:35 PM

The way I see it, the economy is still limping along and until my son (currently working P/T) gets a full time job, it's not good. That's my yardstick.

DrGoogle · 03-08-2012, 07:40 PM

Yes, I think slowly but not robust as I would have liked. Nobody in my immediate family is unemployed.

VeryHappy · 03-08-2012, 07:48 PM

I think it's absolutely getting better, using the yardsticks of unemployment, new jobs, and the DJIA.

However, it's nowhere as good as it used to be, and I think it may take awhile to get better.

I myself just left a [horrible] job and will need to find something else shortly. At this point in my life, however, I don't see myself doing anything conventional; I'm just too damn sick of the corporate world. Talk about tired. I can identify with that.

Marian · 03-08-2012, 07:54 PM

Even though everyone in my family who wants to be employed has an appropriate job, the economy doesn't seem to have improved much in the last couple of years.

Do you remember when your savings actually earned a meaningful amount of interest? I wonder whether we will see that happen again in our lifetimes.

sryrstress · 03-08-2012, 07:59 PM

Here's my take on sryrstress-ville, based on asking every client how their work is, seeing what is being paid/received per acre for farmground, and seeing their 2011 numbers--people are either working, a lot, or are long-term unemployed. Factories in my area are very up and down, even for the same factory. For awhile, it's gung-ho, forced OT and mandatory Saturdays. Then, it's s-l-o-w. I see a tinsy, tinsy bit more hiring in manufacturing. W-2s in manufacturing are down for the 3rd year.

Ag and ag-related is up, up, up. I did not make any farmers happy this year...they made a lot of implement dealers happy though. With bonus depreciation dropping from 100% to 50% for 2012, and farmers having filled their new equipment needs the last 2-3 years, I think these purchases will drop. Overwhelming farmer feelings are $7 corn is not going to stay and inputs will not drop fast or accordingly.

Land sales for farming are incredibly strong, and many of them are cash, to the tune of 1-1.5 mil. Cash rents are increasingly rapidly. There is no way to pencil it out, but that doesn't seem to be stopping many sales.

dstark · 03-08-2012, 08:22 PM

"Do you remember when your savings actually earned a meaningful amount of interest? I wonder whether we will see that happen again in our lifetimes."
Uhhhh..yeah.

So farmers are doing well...

Yes...if my kid is employed...is one of the metrics.

sryrstress · 03-08-2012, 08:27 PM

Farmers have had a better 2-3 year run than I ever remember in the last 25 years. Most of the returns I did (they were due March 1) owed between $30,000-50,000 federal tax, and that's after they wrote off 100% of new equipment, plus their older depreciation. Tractors, combines, etc. cost $75,000-350,000. The amount of technology in new combines and tractors is absolutely astounding--incredible GPS (hey mom, we don't need a steering wheel), yield monitors down to the nths of acres, etc.

The average US farmer today feeds 155 people. In 1960, it was 26. Just my helpful ag tidbit of the day

dstark · 03-08-2012, 08:28 PM

I appreciate it. Really.

Thanks.

mini · 03-08-2012, 08:29 PM

I'm retiring within four months, and will live off the public dole! (and my wife!) I was hoping to get laid off, even campaigned for it, but our state legislature loves me too much. We have no debt except four years to go on our $296/month mortgage.

I'm growing a lot of food (dug up the "front lawn") , and just put in a sizeable green house in the "driveway".

Both kids well employed. The younger one will be making more in her second year than I do at retirement. The older one will eventually teach music and Italian at Muskogee Beauty College or some such. (And I have totally free rent in India, and just about in East Africa.)

MizzBee · 03-08-2012, 08:32 PM

Do taxes and this year I ahd a lot fewer people with unemployment, and almost no one on unemployment all year. I saw the factory workers making back to getting overtime adn the steel mills hiring. It is not perfect but the employment picture seems to be on the mend here. Normally when the mills go back to work in our area, the other businesses follow.