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04-28-2008, 08:31 PM
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#2 | | Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,016
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And we trust commentators, reporters, and polling statistics?
"I am from the Government and I am here to help. "
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04-28-2008, 08:37 PM
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#3 | | Junior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 200
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Rasmussen Polling always swings a little more in the Republicans' favor...they even give GWB (stuck at 22% in most polls) a few extra points compared to other polls. I don't know if they have more conservatives on their list, only poll people with landlines or what, but they and Gallup both seem to trend higher for Republicans. I'm not saying they're wrong...but it's good to look at polling trends among the different polling companies.
But then, to answer Long Prime, everybody believes the polls that prop up the things they believe anyway. Democrats too!
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04-28-2008, 08:38 PM
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#4 | | Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,079
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As long as Obama and Hillary continue to battle, McCain continues to learn the strengths/weaknesses of both. McCain will be prepared when a final decision is made simply because this battle will continue far longer than it should have. He will know what it takes to win-will he win? Who knows? But he is learning a lot about both!
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04-29-2008, 08:50 AM
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#6 | | Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: VA
Posts: 2,435
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The problem with pollster especially this yr is the truthfullness of the people being polled. Rasmussen in an interview has even stated this. Many people do not want to say they are not voting for Obama due to the fact that they feel it looks like they are racists. The other problem is that the younger voters are more likely to not have a land line and thus, pollsters cannot place them into the equation...this of course if pollsters are right would help Obama .
McCain will be able to stay above the fray as long as they continue to duke it out. The more they do, the more swing voters will become disgusted and start looking at McCain. Howard Dean even said as much on Meet The Press this weekend when he eluded to the fact that it took him 3 mos. to convince his supporters to vote for Kerry. This is the DNC's fear that voters will not unite in time and not show up for the election. If you have Hillary supporters believing that she deserves the nod and Obama supporters feeling the samee way. One of these groups will feel that the nom was stolen from their candidate. It will really come down to how the DNC settles the issue of FL and MI. By not counting them, they will place their anger at the DNC and feel cheated (esp. Hillary supporters), by counting them they will see her as cheating, she knew the rules and wanted to change the game, and thus, Obama supporters will be angry. It is a lose-lose situation all around
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04-29-2008, 10:02 AM
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#7 | | Junior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 200
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Yes, McCain is profiting right now from the bickering...Hillary needs to face reality but that's a whole 'nother can of worms. However, McCain has also been saying things that, once the focus is on him, will be difficult to spin away. Don't think that because the media hasn't been paying much attention to him that his opponents on the left have been equally obtuse. There's video of him making some big ol' foot-in-mouth comments ('don't know much about economics' being a goodie as well as the 'Obama is unsympathetic to the poor' comment which will make a lovely sound-bite over a compilation of photos contrasting Katrina damage with him eating b'day cake with GWB). The ads will write themselves. He's already flip-flopped on several fronts, including whether the Bush Tax-Cuts should be permanent and his own campaign finance rules. Add into that the hypocrisy on the right re: wealthy wives (okay when it's McCain, anathema when it's Kerry), loud-mouth preachers, among other things, and it's going to be a raucous season for political junkies like me.
Haven't even mentioned his support for the war...and the 'jobs aren't coming back' bit.
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04-29-2008, 01:41 PM
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#8 | | Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: VA
Posts: 2,435
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He was against the 1st tax cuts, b/c our lovely politicians try to put riders on that was pork...the bill shows it, also this is why he hasb't had to go in further detail, since he stated it in interviews in 01.
Cindy McCain has been very quiet on the front it was Teresa Kerry being hit for her condescending attitude on the road (chewing out reporters was not smart).
Seriously, I am sure moveon.org is at the ad agencies right now, you would be a fool to believe that they are not. Dean already made his target...Keating Five...that is where McCain is going to have to convince people.
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04-29-2008, 02:21 PM
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#9 | | Junior Member
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 191
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Keating Five is very easy to answer - all he has to do is quote the lead Democratic council for the investigation who after many months of investigation recommended dropping ethics charges against both McCain and John Glenn. Of course Howard Dean never lets facts get in the way when there is a potential to do a political smear job.
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04-29-2008, 02:39 PM
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#10 | | Senior Member
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,370
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FF,
Did you see latest Zogby?
Newsmax.com - Zogby Poll: McCain Leads Clinton, Trails Obama
(We do know how polls have been wrong before. )
| Why do obamanites always point to national polls? You guys do realize we use the electoral college right? McCain is up in OH, FL, PA, MI, NV....Obama cannot win if he loses PA or MI
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04-29-2008, 02:49 PM
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#11 | | Member
Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Chicago
Posts: 335
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Because voters never change their minds.
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04-29-2008, 03:10 PM
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#12 | | Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: USA
Posts: 8,306
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One of these groups will feel that the nom was stolen from their candidate. It will really come down to how the DNC settles the issue of FL and MI. By not counting them, they will place their anger at the DNC and feel cheated (esp. Hillary supporters), by counting them they will see her as cheating, she knew the rules and wanted to change the game, and thus, Obama supporters will be angry. It is a lose-lose situation all around...
| I said at the time that Howard Dean was making one of the worst political mistakes in history by not settling Michigan and Florida before they voted.
But, he was already in the tank for Obama (or more precisely, for anybody but Clinton). He knew that he had to keep the media off the Clinton routs in Michigan and Florida or the nomination would be over.
Obama won the Iowa caucus and the black primary in South Carolina. Clinton won New Hamphsire, Nevada, Michigan, and Florida. It's over at that point unless Dean steals the nomination by changing the rules mid-stream and disenfranchising MI and FL instead of just seating half delegates as the rulebook called for.
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04-29-2008, 03:34 PM
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#13 | | Member
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 934
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The other problem is that the younger voters are more likely to not have a land line and thus, pollsters cannot place them into the equation...this of course if pollsters are right would help Obama .
| I used to think that too when I was going for Ron Paul, but the pollls more or less had him pegged exactly.
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04-29-2008, 04:24 PM
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#14 | | Senior Member
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,370
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The other problem is that the younger voters are more likely to not have a land line and thus, pollsters cannot place them into the equation...this of course if pollsters are right would help Obama .
| Except the majority of polls have been right...??
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