Just How Hard Admission Can Be

unbelievablem · 11-19-2005, 03:46 PM

In other threads there have been discussions of how many selective schools have such low admission rates that everyone has to consider them reaches. Also on some of these threads there has been discussion of how easy it is for parents to fall into the trap of assuming that because their child has such high stats, their child will be able to beat these odds.

I know for me, the true nature of selectivity was brought home when I saw one school's brochure that actually gave a breakdown by gpa and sat of the number of applicants and number accepted and rejected -- I found it very enlightening to see that even among those in the top categories, admission at the school in question was far from a sure bet.

I have done some browsing at some of the top schools and have found the following stats. I am sharing these because I think they really underscore the fact that NO ONE can consider themselves a shoe in at some of these schools. Even students in some of the top categories at these schools are getting no better than a 50-50 shot at admission.

At Brown (overall admit rate about 16%), only 26.1% of those with an SAT verbal score over 750 were admitted for the class of 2009. Only 25.7% of those with SAT math scores over 750. http://www.brown.edu/Administration/...ndfigures.html

At Cornell, the overall admit rate was 27%. Even among those with over 750 verbal sat, only 42% were admitted. Of those with math sats over 750, only 35% were admitted. http://dpb.cornell.edu/irp/pdf/FactB...te/profile.pdf

At Duke, the overall acceptance rate was 22% Even those students who ranked in the top 5% of their class got in only 32% of the time. http://www.admissions.duke.edu/jump/...009profile.asp

At Northwestern (overall admit rate of 29.9% - class of 2008), only 53% of valedictorians who applied were admitted. Just over 50% of those with verbal sats over 750 were admitted, and only 46% of those with math sats over 750. http://www.ugadm.northwestern.edu/counselors/facts/

I think these types of stats can be a much greater "reality check" than just hearing that a school has an overall admit rate of 10%, 25%, etc. I wish all schools made this type of info readily available.

jmmom · 11-19-2005, 04:35 PM

Yes, totally agree. I recall that at Stanford for 2004 (I believe), of those with 1600 SAT "perfect" scores, 50% were admitted, 50% denied. There was a thread last year which posted many links similar to yours, but yours are probably now more up-to-date.

hazmat · 11-19-2005, 04:38 PM

Lucky for your kid that you "get it". Many people never get this far.......they whine about getting deferred or rejected with their amazing stats....ECs....prestige HS and on and on.

s'vrone · 11-19-2005, 04:39 PM

Those stats freak me out.

What about the admission statistics for those people who have all the top stats i.e. valedictorian, 750+ on both sections of the SAT?

unbelievablem · 11-19-2005, 04:46 PM

s'vrone -- good question. too bad the colleges don't seem to provide that info.

but i think it would be a big mistake to assume that if you have all three you're ok -- the stats are just too harsh i think to conclude that.

all of those approx. 50% of vals rejected couldn't have had low sats to explain it, and vice versa for those with hi sats.

curmudgeon · 11-19-2005, 04:46 PM

s'vrone, I've looked for those statistics. They don't exist except in the frightening and truthful anecdotal evidence here on this board. We are choosing to prepare as if the acceptance at any given school is as uncertain as the lowest acceptance rate for any single "area" because D is from an unknown school. There are so many other factors that make up the rest of the story that it's about all we can do.

Penn has a great breakdown , too. I'll try to find it again.

dstark · 11-19-2005, 05:08 PM

There are only about 75 schools that are very selective (Take fewer than 50% of their applicants). For some reason everyone wants to go to the same schools. At the other extreme, there are some schools that will take almost anybody with a pulse. People who want to go to those aren't on college boards.

EllenF · 11-19-2005, 07:34 PM

As the current teen population bulge works its way through the college process and because today's students apply to more colleges than students formerly did, we can expect to see the acceptance rates at colleges to go down. Also, students (and parents) tend to forget that acceptance rates for individual programs at a college may be vastly different from the overall acceptance rate at the school. Very few colleges break down acceptances based on majors.

carolyn · 11-19-2005, 07:35 PM

I always say that we do a dis-service to our kids (and ourselves) by focusing in on the "acceptance" rate for each school instead of the "rejection" rate. Think in terms of "91% of applicants to Harvard get rejected" and you have a totally different view of things than if you're thinking "9% acceptance rate." In the first case, you really looking at your chances, in the second you're likely to think "hmmm, I (or my kid) am wonderful. Of course I'll be in that 9%!"

And, it's not just the super-selective schools where you need to think this way, in my opinion. Apply it to schools where there's a 30% chance of rejection, a 40% chance of rejection, a 50% chance of rejection. It keeps things in perspective, and reemphasizes why you need to do a good job on EACH and every application.

Like Curmudgeon, my daughter prepared her list of colleges knowing that acceptance at any given school is uncertain, and that the raw numbers don't always tell the full story about who gets in. I guess some would say that Cur and I have urged our kids to be overly cautious, but hopefully, in the end, they'll have many solid choices to choose from.

hazmat · 11-19-2005, 07:38 PM

The marvel of it all is the people buy lottery tickets........they know the odds and they still buy. Sometimes I think "knowing" the odds encourages people to take opinion that they can do superhuman things.

cujoe169 · 11-19-2005, 07:41 PM

it would be faith... ^ that leads to those things... in any case apply to your safety first, then you feel ok if you get rejected at every single school you apply to... (i'm sure i won't if that's what happens)

interesteddad · 11-19-2005, 08:15 PM

This thread highlights the fundamental flaw of the "Here are my stats, what are my chances?" threads on College Confidential.

The stats, in many cases, just serve as a culling mechanism. Once all the applicants with the stats are left in the pile, the decisions start being made. In part, those decisions are based on the strength of the overall package. In part, those decisions are made based on the institutional needs of the school and the specific freshman class.

Students would be better served to focus less on their stats and more on presenting the most effective package based on their interests and experiences. IMO, students often leave a lot on the table with an unfocused application.

Students would also be well served to concentrate on identifying schools where their particular package will be viewed favorably. For example, if your strength is community service, not varsity sports, you will probably have a better shot at a school that valued community service over athletics than at an otherwise identical school that fills a quarter of its class with recruited athletes. It's just common sense.

hazmat · 11-19-2005, 08:18 PM

That would be like women shopping for their "real" shoe size or men shopping for a power tool that wasn't more than they needed!!! Good post tho. I just couldn't help myself.

unbelievablem · 11-19-2005, 08:31 PM

"This thread highlights the fundamental flaw of the "Here are my stats, what are my chances?" threads on College Confidential."

Yep - I always find those posts somewhat pointless - no one can tell you your chances except for the admissions officers - and then you only get a really "honest" answer when the official enveope arrives.

And one of the traps people readily fall into - they look at the stats of the ADMITTED students (eg, sat 25-75 percentiles) to see how their stats compare. What they don't stop to think about is how many with those stats are still rejected!! Being at the 75 percentile guarentees you nothing, if over 50% of the applicants with those stats were rejected!

unbelievablem · 11-19-2005, 08:35 PM

"As the current teen population bulge works its way through the college process and because today's students apply to more colleges than students formerly did, we can expect to see the acceptance rates at colleges to go down."

And also, more and more applicants have higher credentials - for example, many more kids applying have AP courses than used to be the case. Things that used to make a kid stand out from the pack are becoming more and more the norm as kids devote more energy to boosting their credentials.