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Crowd-sourcing a final decision?

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Replies to: Crowd-sourcing a final decision?

  • bopperbopper Registered User Posts: 6,766 Senior Member
    edited April 20
    re: Med school acceptance rates (and I am making up numbers)

    2000 kids think they are going to go to med school as a freshman.
    1000 kids think they are going to go to med school as a sophomore because they made it through chem and bio
    500 kids think they are going to go to med school as a junior because they made it through organic chem
    200 kids think they are going to go to med school as a senior because they got decent scores on the MCAT and have a good GPA
    100 kids actually apply and get through the whole process
    50 kids get a recommendation letter from the pre-health committee so the others are effectively shut out
    40 of those kids are accepted to various levels of DO or MD schools

    So when they say 80% are admitted, they don't mean from the 2000 freshman, they mean from the 50 cream of the crop that made it to the end with high GPAs and high MCAT scores who got the blessing of the pre-health committtee...and some of those are going to Harvard Med and some of those are going to East Podunk DO school
  • EyeVeeeEyeVeee Registered User Posts: 290 Junior Member
    I personally think the CS + med school idea is great. It opens so many options on what medicine might be in 15-20 years, nobody posting could possibly know the value.

    I am commenting after reading the comparative med school numbers above (80% vs 70%). If going to an Ivy is the $280k question here....going to a top 10 med school is the million dollar (* X ?) question. Medical school differentiation is significant.

    I would really struggle with turning down free....but the assumption that the same person could go into to Brown or Villanova and have the same chance at a top tier med school doesn't feel right to me. If there is money in a 529, it might be well spent considering the potential upside could be millions down the road.

    Tough call. I'd also venture to guess that brown CS majors going direct to employment make more than Nova grads. Statistics on schools vary a lot by grad school and major, and Nova is a bit of a pre-professional factory (with regionally respected engineering and business programs) In the Stanford run world of CS....Ivy means something. Good luck.
  • PurpleTitanPurpleTitan Registered User Posts: 9,374 Senior Member
    @EyeVeee: "Medical school differentiation is significant."

    Not if you plan to practice. Yes if you want to go in research, but researchers would tend to make less.
  • northwestynorthwesty Registered User Posts: 2,344 Senior Member
    If you are going to pay the $280k, then maybe you should go to ND (which this kid likes and has visited). 80+% med school acceptance rate at ND too. USNWR #15 as compared to Brown at #14.

    But Nova or Case make more sense.
  • EyeVeeeEyeVeee Registered User Posts: 290 Junior Member
    @PurpleTitan The comment was made based on having a spouse who was responsible for Oncology fellowship matches at an Ivy hospital.

    You would be correct that all GP's make roughly the same (as do all cardiologists, oncologists, etc....for arguments sake here), but getting into a specialty could impact earnings by double or triple. Knowing the competition for those spots, I would suggest the Medical School differentiation for practicing physicians is significant. Over a 20 year career, the differences could be multiple millions. Quick math with inflation...could be $5M-$10M easy.
  • PurpleTitanPurpleTitan Registered User Posts: 9,374 Senior Member
    @EyeVeee: The tough part, of course, is differentiating between the med school and med school input. The top med schools would naturally also have the best incoming talent.

    For any particular kid, then, you have the same issue as undergrad. No one gets two MDs from different med schools.
  • LurkerDad2LurkerDad2 Registered User Posts: 17 New Member
    The argument about lifetime earnings being potentially higher at Brown than Villanova fails to take into account the opportunity cost of depleting the 529 and tapping into my own savings (or having him get loans). Taking just the 529 into account, and assuming that goes untouched for 4 years with son at Villanova and earns a somewhat modest rate of return (say 7%), that will be at around $160K on his graduation day. That makes the delta between Brown and Villanova not $280K, but $440K (not taking my own savings into account).

    .
  • EyeVeeeEyeVeee Registered User Posts: 290 Junior Member
    edited April 21
    @LurkerDad - you can't double count the money. The total cost of Brown (in your example) is $280k. whether you pay that in 529 money, loans, bitcoin or pennies...it's a cost of $280k. If you want to add 7% for 4 years (aggressive)...let's call it $290k. That's the cost.

    Edit: That's still a HUGE difference. I'm not saying I would favor Brown...just evaluating options in the crowd-sourcing arena.
  • LurkerDad2LurkerDad2 Registered User Posts: 17 New Member
    I don't think it's double counting.
    - Brown = spend $280K, and drain 529 to nothing (along with other savings). Net loss = -$280,000
    - Villanova = spend $0 and 529 grows to $160K. net gain = $160,000

    I see that as a delta of $440K
  • PurpleTitanPurpleTitan Registered User Posts: 9,374 Senior Member
    Well, there's an inflation-adjustment as well (in tuition).

    But it's also the case that each dollar spent that takes you closer to a savings of $0 should be more dear.
    Volatility is a fact of American life, and just as no company wants to hit bankruptcy when the first economic downturn happens, having a savings buffer is very valuable.
  • EyeVeeeEyeVeee Registered User Posts: 290 Junior Member
    edited April 21
    When you drain the 529 to nothing...you "pay" only $120k. If you save the $160k...you're saving $280k (120+160).

    Look at it another way....don't spend the 529 money (no opportunity cost). How much did it cost to go to Brown?

    The only opportunity cost is the potential growth of the money in the 529 between the time you would have spent it for Brown and the time you would eventually use it.
  • blossomblossom Registered User Posts: 7,691 Senior Member
    Nobody needs to convince the dad that Brown is "worth" it. The son isn't interested in Brown. Problem solved.

  • 1518mom1518mom Registered User Posts: 363 Member
    edited April 21
    What Blossom said! Not everyone desires Ivy League just because of its perceived prestige. It's still about $$$ and fit.
  • Middleman68Middleman68 Registered User Posts: 136 Junior Member
    Learning so much here.

    ND has a vast alumni network ... In Philadelphia. CWRU is superior because USNWR says so -- even with like a dozen schools tied at 37. The next group? 50.

    The scholarship the OP's son received is very competitive at Villanova. It wasn't merely handed over. He was interviewed and likely made several contacts at the university throughout the process. This may explain the attraction. Rest assured, he will not be in an honors program of one. There are plenty of bright, ambitious kids surrounding him.

    The final two are both excellent. Good luck.
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