Has any noticed less than stellar performance by National Merit Scholars?

[taxguy]

Epiphany, I can't say you are wrong......but...

Most of the colleges that I have seen have their grading in such as way as to provide a sort of bell curve for the GPA for all their graduates. Thus, a certain percentage,which does vary by school, will graduate Cum Laude, Magna Cum Laude etc. If that percentage becomes too high, some schools will have grad deflation ( such as Princeton).

Kids that are NMF with top notch SAT should theoretically get at least a 3.5 in any major! Yes, I have certainly heard the argument that some majors are harder than others,which may have some some validity. However, I have found that each major tends to be difficult in their own way. Some may require a lot more math skills while some require a lot of strong writing skills and lots and lots of papers. They each have their challenges.

Again, since many colleges put such an emphasis on the NMF status, I am only questioning whether this status and scholarships are really worth it.

[epiphany]

You are clearly not acquainted with the varieties of grading policies at many of the Elites, to which many NM *Finalists* (I don't know about semifinalists separately) matriculate. There's no forgiving "bell curve" at some of these. If anything, it's quite the opposite.

Also ask newmassdad about U of Chicago's grading standards. You seem not to have much information to give credibility to your speculations.

[taxguy]

epiphany notes,"You seem not to have much information to give credibility to your speculations."

Response: As I have stated, I can only base my specuation based on my experience,which is why I started the thread.

For example, among many, I know of one kid who got a full ride to ASU because he was a NMF. He promply met a girl in honors class and both did HORRIBLY.

At University of Cincinnati, my daughter's roommate is dating a NMF who is lucky if he has a 3.2 overall.

A friend's daughter got a full ride to University of Maimi and has about 3.0 GPA

Notice. I am not talking about Univeristy of Chicago, and schools of that caliber.

I can go on and on of people that I know who are in a similar situation.

[bluebayou]

taxguy:

if a college has a mean gpa of say, 3.3, then by definition, 49.99% of students are below that number. Thus, saying that a high scorer should be able to earn a "3.5 in any major is illogical". Don't forget, there are plenty of 2150-2200 scorers, but commended. And, of course, colleges have plenty of ACT folks who score 33+ but are ineligible for NM.

[tokenadult]

Kids that are NMF with top notch SAT should theoretically get at least a 3.5 in any major!

Not just any major. And less likely so at a college in which a very high percentage of all students had the qualifications to be National Merit finalists.

http://www.nationalmerit.org/07_annual_report.pdf

[midmo]

taxguy, if National Merit designation is, in fact, so worthless as a predictor of college performance (however you care to define it), why do some schools continue to offer scholarships to finalists? Are the schools being run by idiots?

In the absence of actual evidence to the contrary, I assume that good performance on this sort of standardized test is seen as useful for targeting a group of students that is MORE LIKELY to perform well in college (as measured in a variety of ways) than the general group of applicants a given college is likely to attract. That doesn't mean there won't be a spread in actual performance, but, on average, designated students are higher achievers. If schools start to find this assumption is not borne out, then they will stop offering the incentive.

Is this "fair" on an individual basis? Of course not; many very fine students will be paying more for the same opportunities as another student with natural test-taking smarts. But, if your goal is to make the world of university admissions and financing completely "fair" from the point of view of every individual student, you have quite a task ahead of you!

P.S. After more than three decades in/at/on a variety of university campuses, ranging from so-so publics to elite privates, and encompassing a variety of fields, nobody will convince me that there is not a very broad range of what constitutes a "good" gpa, or that gpa (in and of itself) is a useful measure of a successful college career, from the point of view of the student or the institution.

[toneranger]

So, all we have is anecdotal evidence here...even the survey annual report encompassed only 80 students. Would be nice to see some tracking of a large group.
Tax Guy - I wonder if the school choices of these NMFs may be a clue. In our hs NMF group of about 30 kids, most went on to Ivies, Duke, Johns Hopkins and other top schools. My s went to his state U honors college and is doing great (only a $1000 one-time scholarship for NMF though). Very few took full rides (actually I don't know anyone who did this).
So, if I'm go to University of Arizona or UCF, maybe I not shooting as high as I could or maybe I got rejected from other top Us because I wasn't very well rounded. Sure, it may be the money, but I'm just wondering if this might be an indicator.
Bottom line though, I agree that this is a somewhat bogus award that is given WAY too much significance by certain schools. When I find out someone is a an NMF, I think, hey "he or she is a good test taker," not "he or she is brilliant." I guess it's an easy way for some schools (not top tier)to TRY to identify top students. I know there are some who pump themselves up by promoting how many NMFs they have.

[toneranger]

You wonder if these "full ride" schools have been reading the research...
SAT I: A Faulty Instrument For Predicting College Success | FairTest

[ellemenope]

>>Maybe a bonus or small scholarship...but that's it. And really, I don't think it gives you ANY kind of admissions boost at top schools.<<

I think that for most people who are NMFs, this is the BEST that they get. Most don't even get a small bonus or one time scholarship. Just bragging rights...like winning the disco ball from dancing with the stars.

[tokenadult]

FairTest's axe-grinding doesn't convince me at all.

[dc89]

taxguy, I am unfortunately not getting a cent of scholarship from National Merit (I wasn't a Scholar, just a Finalist... only got a 2170 on my SATs, which is incidentally exactly what my 217 PSAT predicted) or from my school, which only offers need-based aid. In fact, the only scholarship I was offered in relation to National Merit was $5000 from NYU. (I could have applied to USC and gotten a hefty scholarship, but that would have meant going to USC...)

[midmo]

Completely agree with tokenadult about "FairTest".

[nngmm]

dc89, most of the money NMFs get does not come from the NM corporation. The most you could get from them is $2,500, which seems to be given to 2,500 fairly randomly selected NMFs. The rest comes from corporate sponsors, and colleges that choose to give money to NMFs.

[midmo]

I guess it's an easy way for some schools (not top tier)to TRY to identify top students.

Yes, it is an easy way. That is why they do it. And it must be successful, or they wouldn't continue to do it.

[JHS]

I don't think "most" colleges make a big deal about NMF status. A few of them have been using it as a marketing device; these are mostly second- or third-rank state universities who face a lot of competition even for good in-state students, and their NMF strategy is an attempt to raise their prestige (or, more politely, improve their academic environment) by enticing strong students, both in- and out-of-state, who might otherwise turn up their noses at the colleges, to attend them. I suspect that only a small proportion of NMFs take up those offers, and the ones who do may not be the most academically inclined. (If you accept a full ride to a famous party school, could the party-school reputation have something to do with your decision?)

There is a simple reason why colleges are tempted to use NMF status for that: it is public information, and it is available early enough to make a difference. They could use SATs, or ACTs, but they would have to get their hands on the scores, which would require a release from the student. Getting the student's attention is a big part of the battle; using NMF status lets the college carpet bomb students with mail without the students applying. Plus, for many students, SATs or ACTs aren't available until relatively late in the process, whereas NMSF status is known six months before applications are due. Finally, it's a recognized national standard. "We have 60 National Merit Finalists in our freshman class" is a simpler communication than "We have 85 students in our freshman class with SATs higher than Harvard's 75th percentile," or some other such boast.

I don't believe many colleges (or at least many competitive colleges) use NMF status to the exclusion of other, better measures of desirability. As I said before, one of my kids was a NMF, the other merely Commended. Commended had better high school grades and SATs. Guess which one got more merit scholarship offers, in larger amounts. Unsurprisingly, it was Commended. But they only came from colleges to which he applied. So the University of Oklahoma never knew it might want to pursue him.

Since PSATs correlate pretty well with SATs, and SATs correlate somewhat well with performance in college, I suspect that the population of NMFs, on average, does just fine. Sure, some will be great, and some will get lost, just like any other group of 18-year-olds. But I doubt there's any other handy-dandy standard, to which colleges have access, which will (a) produce a similar-sized population of kids, (b) produce kids who perform meaningfully better in college, and (c) be readily understandable by the public, potential applicants, faculty, or any of the other constituencies to which PR is directed.

[Finally, and a bit facetiously: The NMSF cut-off varies from state to state. A NMF from Wyoming might not come close to cutting the mustard in New York or California. Is taxguy certain that the loser-NMFs he's noticed aren't simply NMFs from loser states?]