25%-75% range

[curmudgeon]

When is the 75th percentile stat the "average" stat? Answer= In selective college admissions. In my opinion one thing people don't seem to catch onto until it is too late is that the 25-75th numbers in the guidebook aren't talking about your kid (unless your kid is "hooked"). The listed 75th percentile is the average GPA, or standardized test score for an unhooked kid. A BWRK. Most assuredly my kid and most probably your kid will be viewed as "unhooked". Now think about the boost ED gives at some schools. If no ED, now you have an unhooked RD kid . Think about it. It's better to be safe than sorry IMO. Have some clear safeties that you love.

That bottom up to 25th percentile is for "hooked" kids, and should not be considered in deciding match schools. That "quarter" is essentially closed to most of our kids at many schools. It is far safer to use the 75th percentile as the average stat for unhooked kids . JMO, but I really think folks make serious errors looking at these stats as written.

[momofthree]

Curmudgeon,

The experience we have had this year surely bears out what you are saying. My son (S1) is a BWRK, whose SAT and ACT were above 1500, but somewhat below the borderline of the 75% at the two most selective colleges he applied to; he was rejected by one (Yale) and waitlisted at one (Princeton.) He got into a variety of very selective schools for which his SAT/ACT were at the 75% mark or slightly above, including Brown, where he is going. I remember wondering if they were all reaches anyway because I figured the BWRK business would keep him out. The GPA is really good, though, and some other factors, which must have helped.

Your point is well taken. Still, my son's experience suggests that one needs to stretch at least a little bit in this process. Son's GC said, "Go ahead and apply, and if you get in, it will be icing on the cake." That is the attitude he took, and not getting into Yale and Princeton was really not painful because he expected nothing.

[curmudgeon]

momofthree, we will follow your wise lead. Is your S happy and excited with the Brown outcome? (I wonder how many UPS jokes they get? What can Brown do for you?)

[Donemom]

Congratulations to your son, momofthree! My daughter, a 2004 grad of Brown, thinks that school is heaven on earth!

[speckledegg]

Curmudgeon, excellent advice. To take your point even further, it has been noted elsewhere on this site that for a truly comfortable "match", one's scores should above the midpoint between the 75th% and 800, especially if the applicant is an unhooked white male. Among the most selective schools, there is not much breathing room there, hence "stat shock". (It's the college app counterpart to shopping for a new car.)Most people think they have a good shot if they fall in the 25th-75th percentile then cannot understand why they end up with so few acceptances. This is a quick calculation that can save much waitlist/denial disappointment later. It's okay to date a few reaches, but best to fall in love within the 75th% (or above).

[jhsu]

Everyone on this board needs to get this straight:

For the top few dozen schools that everyone is obsessed about, the SAT averages have ABSOLUTELY NO BEARING on an individual's chances of admission. The two reasons:
1. The most selective schools have VERY low acceptance rates. Someone with an SAT of 1000 is more likely than not to be accepted at a school where 1000 is average. The same does NOT apply to someone with an SAT of 1400 and an equivalent academic record. The typical school with an SAT average has an acceptance rate of at least 70%. The typical school with an SAT average of 1400 or more will have an acceptance rate more like 10%-20%. Thus, SAT statistics DO NOT GIVE AN APPLES-TO-APPLES COMPARISON.
2. The most selective schools have MUCH more erratic admissions policies. At most of the less selective schools, anyone with high enough grades and test scores is guaranteed admission. At the most selective schools, extracurriculars, essays, whether or not the applicant fills an athletic/musical shortage at the school, the mood of the admissions officer, and the temperature in Scottsbluff, Nebraska all matter.

[sweetkidsmom]

You guys are speaking with the voices of experience that leaves me confused. Can you explain the 25-75 % range, which quarter percent. Are you talking SAT score? I just got a copy of the Fiske book and have been reading over it today. S SAT is 2160, 740V 720W 700M. He isn't an athlete. he is in the psat semifinal to final range(99th percetile) with a psat of 216 for Calif(216 is the cut off for semi and final).

Looking at schools with SAT's iin 560to 760 range for middle 50%. Thats how I usually think of it, the top 25%, mid 50%, bottom 25%.

[momofthree]

Curmudge,

Yup, he is really excited. Brought that up this very evening on the Happy about decision thread, cause I was so thrilled he has really made a strong commitment. Thanks for asking!

jhsu, you do have a strong point here, as the adcoms at those schools of which you speak all say they can fill their class several times over with well-qualified kids. That is why we were so sure it was a complete crap-shoot, and my S had a happy safety chosen in case.

[speckledegg]

sweetkidsmom, I think we're talking about the same thing. The 25th-75th percentile is the same thing as the middle 50% of SAT scores. The 25th percentile is the same thing as the bottom 25%.

[Donemom]

Re the very most selective colleges: once you have gotten past the mid 1400's (old SAT's), you have reached the SAT bar for almost any school. Another 50 pts. will probably do very little for you...Assuming you have a strong academic record, it's everything else that comes into play at that point.(ec's, essay, recs). If you look at the threads for the very top schools, many kids with 1500's are rejected, and a good number in the high 1400's who have other outstanding accomplishments (and I don't mean athletics, legacy, or URMs necessarily) are accepted. So SAT gives you almost no predictability for the most competitive colleges.

[tokenadult]

Originally Posted by jhsu

For the top few dozen schools that everyone is obsessed about, the SAT averages have ABSOLUTELY NO BEARING on an individual's chances of admission.

I think saying "absolutely no bearing" says too much, especially because there is research on this point. The National Bureau of Economic Research (this is a PRIVATE research organization) studies on college admission show clearly enough that one's chances of admission rise as one's SAT scores increase, which is what most people would expect. At the very most selective schools, even the chances for a new SAT I 2400 scorer will be less than 50:50, if SAT I scores alone are considered, but SAT I scores don't come alone in an actual application. An applicant with high grades in CHALLENGING courses (this very often means courses taken through concurrent enrollment at a local college) and a NATIONAL-LEVEL EC will have a better than even chance of admission if the SAT scores are also in the application file. The main problem too many high school valedictorians have is that there are too many high school valedictorians--there are more than 38,000 high schools in the United States, not even to mention other countries.

I will repeat what I have mentioned in other threads: I know of someone who batted 1.000 in college admission, gaining admission to Harvard, Princeton, MIT, Caltech, Chicago, and two other schools that have escaped my memory. An exceptional applicant? To be sure, but Yale's president has said in interviews that every year there are about 200 or so applicants who are sure admits, and I believe him when he says that. The class fills up to its full size by admitting additional applicants who may be more or less interchangeable with applicants who are rejected--which is why you phenomena of people getting into one top school but not another. If you dearly want to get into a top school, definitely apply to ALL the schools that seem to be a good fit, but don't resign into fatalism when there are known things to do that increase one's chances of admission.

On my part, I don't know if my children will be content just to go to State U, where their parents got their degrees, or to go to some obscure school for some obscure reason. If they decide to apply to the famous, hard-to-get-into schools, they may as well prepare beforehand. That's not a sure thing, but there are things to do that will increase their chances.

[ohio_mom]

Curmudgeon,
Interestingly, my son was waitlisted at two schools where he was at or above the 75% SAT level, and accepted at one where he was below it (and not top 10% in class rank, either). You should certainly look at that 75% mark, but I don't think its cast in stone either. As everyone has been saying, there are a host of factors that are considered in subjective admissions, and I can attest to that.

To get a very rough approximation for how risky an admissions strategy is, you can estimate the probability of being rejected everywhere by multiplying the rejection rates of all the colleges together. Now that makes a bunch of assumptions - one of which is that you have at least an average chance of acceptance (and this may not be true if you are asking for financial aid). If your kid is applying to 6 ivies you end up with something resembling .9 x .9 x .9 x .85 x .85 x .85 = 45% - not something I'm willing to bet on. Add in a couple/three less competitive schools, and the numbers start looking a lot less ugly.

[carolyn]

Cur, one other thing to keep in mind is that the reported stats are for ENROLLED students, not for all applicants. As you know, I like to err on the side of caution. Unless we're talking about the most selective schools that get an 80% yield rate, it is a good bet that the stats for ADMITTED students are going to be slightly higher than those reported in all of the guidebooks. And, I believe it is also important to look at the admit rate overall. If you're in the top 75% at a school that admits 60% or more - it's a safe bet. Top 75% at a school that admits less than 30% - it's a reach---for everyone.

[TheDad]

While there are so many exceptions, I like Curmudgeon's rule of thumb: no hooks? Look at that 75th percentile as the bar you want to clear.

Where students and parents *really* get fouled up is on the converse: assuming that if they have the average stats, it's a Match. No no no no no no no no no no. And no.

Somebody remind me to start a thread on the packing of dorm rooms for the summer. It may be funny by the time I get to it.

[tokenadult]

Originally Posted by TheDad

Where students and parents *really* get fouled up is on the converse: assuming that if they have the average stats, it's a Match. No no no no no no no no no no. And no.

Yes, that is the more common error. We've seen it here a bunch of times this year.

I just learned the count of United States high schools today at the public library, when I saw the Sports Illustrated issue about the top 25 sports high schools. (Sure enough, one high school in our local athletic conference is on that list.) Because there are 38,000 high schools in the United States, there can be a LOT of applicants with stats just like your junior's. Unless your child has truly, really done something competitive at a national level, you have no idea how Junior compares to the tens of thousands of potential other applicants. Sad, but true.