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students have responded by applying more widely, generating more applications
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That's what I'm wondering also. At my son's school, this year's class is much smaller than last year but if you look at Naviance, they have applied in much larger numbers to a greater number of schools. I'm not entirely sure why. I haven't heard the GCs encouraging this. I know my son has received a mountain of letters (I'm talking several large boxes full), marketing brochures and emails but I figured that was because he was a NMSF. I wonder if all students have been receiving this much marketing material.
Something seems off about this. I can see state U's getting a huge uptick in applications and even Chicago but we're in the middle of a major recession. Most GCs were predicting a downward trend in applications for the more pricier schools and an upward trend in the state Us. How is the average wage earner planning to pay for schools for a $50k a year school? Surely, they're not taking on more loans. Maybe they're casting a wide net in hopes of more merit aid.