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"if everyone guessed, roughly 20% would get it right."
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Assuming the guesses are distributed randomly and ... evenly.
As far as the level of the OP question, it should be a 4 or 5 depending where the writers decide to stick it.
I do not think that questions with multiple choices such I or I and III go below 4. But things might have changed lately.
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It is very easy once you expand (x+y)^2.
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True, but for most in SAT-landia expanding (x+y)^2 is either a forgotten or a difficult subject. Not difficult to master in the typical "short-attention-required" homework problem, but difficult to know when to apply on a SAT test.
Every SAT problem becomes very easy ... when you know HOW to solve it.